Match Info

League One - Round 42

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London)

Referee: Brook C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	AFC Wimbledon		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.7	3.55	1.92	Watch
	3.65	3.84	2.02
	3.29	3.42	2.14	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2
	3.67	3.57	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (2.89)	3.55 ↑ (3.3)	1.99 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
26.3%

Draw
26.5%

Luton Town
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

27.8%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

26.7%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AFC Wimbledon's form might have worsened.

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luton Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luton Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

AFC Wimbledon - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Luton will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wimbledon: 59.8% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Wimbledon (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Luton (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bishop N. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 15. Bauer P. 31. Lewis J. 30. Nkeng R. 12. Smith A. 4. Reeves J. (C) 8. Maycock C. 3. Seddon S. 9. Bugiel O. 16. Hackford A.	24. Keeley J. (G) 5. Andersen M. 16. Odoffin H. 3. Naismith K. (C) 25. Jones I. 8. Walsh L. 54. Palmer K. 32. Lawrence E. 27. Richards J. 18. Clark J. 21. Wells N.
Substitutes
2. Asiimwe N. 19. Foyo O. 5. Hutchinson S. 32. Jennings K. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 29. Sasu A. 36. Stewart L.	12. Al Hamadi A. 33. Bramall C. 17. Lonwijk N. 14. Morris S. 23. Saville G. 1. Shea J. (G) 6. van den Berg D.
Coaches
Jackson J.	Wilshere J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Palmer K. ⚽,
17', Wells N. ↓, Al Hamadi A. ↑,
23', Bauer P. ↓, Asiimwe N. ↑,
28', Lewis J. 🟨,
30', Lewis J. ↓, Hutchinson S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', 0 - 2, Al Hamadi A. ⚽, Richards J. (A),
63', Richards J. 🟨,
67', Hackford A. ↓, Sasu A. ↑,
67', Reeves J. ↓, Jennings K. ↑,
79', 0 - 3, Richards J. ⚽, Al Hamadi A. (A),
81', Palmer K. ↓, Saville G. ↑,
81', Lawrence E. ↓, Bramall C. ↑,
87', Clark J. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
87', Richards J. ↓, Morris S. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 16 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 1.

Wimbledon is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Luton is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Luton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Luton might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Wimbledon: Sasu A. (Hamstring Injury) Tilley J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Hip Injury) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Holmes T. (Inactive) Mengi T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Wimbledon: Hippolyte M. (Inactive) Stevens M. (Inactive) Stewart L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Andersen M. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Wimbledon won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 2:1.8).

Outrights of English League One for now

Luton: 6.34% AFC Wimbledon: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	AFC Wimbledon	9	3	3	3	7:10	-3	12
13	Luton	8	3	2	3	16:15	1	11

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Wimbledon - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 31.7%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
03.04.26	Lincoln City - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Stockport County - AFC Wimbledon	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	AFC Wimbledon - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	AFC Wimbledon - Leyton Orient	2:4 ✺
14.03.26	Stevenage Borough - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL
- Luton Town
English League One
03.04.26	Luton Town - Peterborough United	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Luton Town - Stockport County	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	Luton Town - Exeter City	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Wycombe Wanderers - Luton Town	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Doncaster Rovers - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
01.08.25	Luton Town - AFC Wimbledon	1:0
23.04.19	Luton Town - AFC Wimbledon	2:2
27.10.18	AFC Wimbledon - Luton Town	0:2
English EFL Trophy
31.10.17	AFC Wimbledon - Luton Town	1:2
English League Two
13.02.16	AFC Wimbledon - Luton Town	4:1
26.09.15	Luton Town - AFC Wimbledon	2:0
21.02.15	AFC Wimbledon - Luton Town	3:2

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