Match Info

League One - Round 44

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London)

Referee: Swallow E. (Eng)


	AFC Wimbledon		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.6	1.86	Watch
	3.55	3.55	1.98	Watch
	3.87	3.62	2.04
	3.99	3.77	1.82	Watch
	3.6	3.5	1.91
	3.63	3.63	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↑ (2.95)	3.61 ↑ (3.3)	1.92 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
25.3%

Draw
26%

Plymouth Argyle
48.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

27.7%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

26.4%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AFC Wimbledon's form might have worsened.

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Plymouth Argyle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Plymouth Argyle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	15.4%	69.2%

AFC Wimbledon - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Plymouth will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Plymouth: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bishop N. (G) 2. Asiimwe N. 33. Ogundere I. 6. Johnson R. 3. Seddon S. 7. Tilley J. 12. Smith A. 4. Reeves J. (C) 30. Nkeng R. 8. Maycock C. 36. Stewart L.	1. Hazard C. (G) 8. Edwards J. (C) 2. Ross M. 15. Mitchell A. 45. Harding W. 4. Wiredu B. 28. Curtis R. 17. Watts C. 19. Boateng M. 35. Dale O. 9. Tolaj L.
Substitutes
19. Foyo O. 16. Hackford A. 22. Horan R. 32. Jennings K. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 37. Nelson Z. 29. Sasu A.	10. Amaechi X. 21. Ashby-Hammond L. (G) 18. Oseni O. 7. Paterson J. 27. Pepple A. 5. Pleguezuelo J. 29. Sorinola M.
Coaches
Jackson J.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Mitchell A. ⚽, Boateng M. (A),
24', Tolaj L. 🟨,
24', Johnson R. 🟨,
45+3', Ross M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 1 - 1, Smith A. ⚽, Tilley J. (A),
55', Wiredu B. 🟨,
62', Wiredu B. ↓, Sorinola M. ↑,
62', Watts C. ↓, Pepple A. ↑,
65', Stewart L. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Tolaj L. ⚽, Harding W. (A),
69', Curtis R. ↓, Amaechi X. ↑,
71', Asiimwe N. ↓, Sasu A. ↑,
71', Reeves J. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
75', Seddon S. 🟨,
76', 1 - 3, Pepple A. ⚽, Dale O. (A),
81', Maycock C. ↓, Foyo O. ↑,
85', Tolaj L. ↓, Pleguezuelo J. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 1.

Wimbledon has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Plymouth is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Plymouth may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Plymouth has had a series of home games.

In this match, Plymouth is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Wimbledon: Stevens M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Plymouth: Ibrahim B. (Ankle Injury) Pleguezuelo J. (Calf Injury) Ralls J. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Wimbledon: Bugiel O. (Inactive) Hippolyte M. (Inactive) Johnson R. (Inactive) Lewis J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Plymouth: Finn T. (Hamstring Injury) Pepple A. (Inactive) Wiredu B. (Inactive)

We predict that Plymouth will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 25:32. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Wimbledon won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Plymouth	10	6	1	3	18:12	6	19
11	AFC Wimbledon	9	3	3	3	7:10	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Wimbledon - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.03%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
15.04.26	AFC Wimbledon - Stockport County	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Burton Albion - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	AFC Wimbledon - Luton Town	0:3 ✺
03.04.26	Lincoln City - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Stockport County - AFC Wimbledon	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
11.04.26	Plymouth Argyle - Exeter City	2:2 ✺
06.04.26	Barnsley - Plymouth Argyle	0:3 ✺
03.04.26	Plymouth Argyle - Bolton Wanderers	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Plymouth Argyle - Huddersfield Town	3:1 ✺
17.03.26	Plymouth Argyle - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
18.10.25	Plymouth Argyle - AFC Wimbledon	1:2
English EFL Trophy
21.12.22	Plymouth Argyle - AFC Wimbledon	4:3 penalties
English League One
08.03.22	Plymouth Argyle - AFC Wimbledon	2:0
18.09.21	AFC Wimbledon - Plymouth Argyle	0:1
02.04.21	Plymouth Argyle - AFC Wimbledon	1:0
19.09.20	AFC Wimbledon - Plymouth Argyle	4:4
Club Friendly
20.07.19	AFC Wimbledon - Plymouth Argyle	0:2

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