Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Cepheus Park (Randers)

Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	AGF Aarhus		Sabah

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.70	4.00	Watch
	1.80	3.70	4.33
	1.67	3.80	4.90
	1.76	3.73	4.42
	1.74	3.84	4.63	Watch
	1.75	3.50	4.60
	1.74	3.85	4.60	Watch
	1.78	3.70	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.42)	3.73 ↓ (4.53)	4.49 ↓ (7.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AGF Aarhus
53.8%

Draw
25.2%

Sabah
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

20.9%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

21.6%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AGF Aarhus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AGF Aarhus's form might have worsened.

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sabah's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AGF Aarhus, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sabah, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.4%	2.3%	11.4%

AGF Aarhus - Sabah Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarhus (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AGF Aarhus will win (38 of 44 users predict this - 86.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.22% – 96.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Hedenstad M. (G) 25. Rosler C. 5. Tingager F. 19. Kahl E. 23. Anderson M. 4. Knudsen M. 16. Jonsson J. 39. Emmery F. 31. Bech T. 28. Bogere J. 10. Arnstad K. (C)	92. Pokatilov S. (C) 80. Zedadka A. 3. Solvet S. 5. Dashdamirov R. 27. Puchacz T. 7. Rakhmonaliyev U. 13. Lepinjica I. 11. Parris K. 10. Isayev A. 21. Simic V. 20. Mickels J.
Substitutes
26. Andersen J. 44. Camara M. 29. Carstensen R. 1. Hansen J. (G) 8. Jorgensen S. 20. Kristjansson T. 11. Links G. 46. Sengooba H. 13. Serra J. 7. Solbakken M. 45. Storch C. 27. Tchamche S.	88. Fernandes R. 6. Khaybulaev A. 23. Lachaab Y. 99. Mbina O. 4. McCarthy A. 94. Mirzammadov R. (G) 17. Mutallimov T. 8. Nwachukwu C. 1. Ramazanov A. (G) 16. Rustamli R. 33. Santos Junior E. A. 34. Severina X.
Coaches
Poulsen J.	Dambrauskas V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Tingager F. ↓, Andersen J. ↑,
31', 1 - 0, Bogere J. ⚽,
33', Dambrauskas V. 🟨,
37', Simic V. 🟨,
39', Mickels J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jonsson J. ↓, Carstensen R. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Bogere J. ⚽, Knudsen M. (A),
65', Parris K. ↓, Mbina O. ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Simic V. ⚽, Rakhmonaliyev U. (A),
71', Emmery F. ↓, Links G. ↑,
73', Links G. 🟨,
74', Knudsen M. 🟨,
79', Isayev A. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
81', Rosler C. ↓, Storch C. ↑,
81', Anderson M. ↓, Serra J. ↑,
90+3', Simic V. ↓, Khaybulaev A. ↑,
90+3', Mickels J. ↓, Lachaab Y. ↑,

Preview

First leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Cepheus Park.

In recent matches, Aarhus has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sabah is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sabah may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aarhus is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Sabah Baku: 0.2%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
34	Sabah Baku	1	0	0	1	0:4	-4	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
01.08.26	Lyngby BK - AGF Aarhus	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Lech Poznań - AGF Aarhus	1:5 penalties ✺
Danish Superliga
25.07.26	AGF Aarhus - Brøndby	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	AGF Aarhus - Lech Poznań	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	AGF Aarhus - Horsens	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWTLW
- Sabah Baku FK
UEFA Champions League
28.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - Sabah	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Sabah - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
14.07.26	The New Saints - Sabah	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Sabah - The New Saints	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.26	Polissya Zhytomyr - Sabah	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL

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