Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Bank Respublika Arena (Masazır)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV


	Sabah		KuPS Kuopio

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.10	6.50	Watch
	1.43	4.75	6.75
	1.46	4.75	5.40	Watch
	1.44	4.90	7.00
	1.46	4.30	6.77	Watch
	1.39	4.85	6.75
	1.43	4.69	7.09	Watch
	1.39	4.80	6.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.92)	4.64 ↑ (3.48)	6.63 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabah
65.8%

Draw
20.1%

KuPS Kuopio
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

26.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

26.6%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sabah's performance.

KuPS Kuopio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KuPS Kuopio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sabah that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that KuPS Kuopio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	6.3%	3.2%

Sabah - KuPS Kuopio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - KuPS (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sabah will win (55 of 61 users predict this - 90.16%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.69% – 97.63%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sabah will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabah (votes: 9 - 90%). KuPS (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
92. Pokatilov S. (C) 80. Zedadka A. 3. Solvet S. 5. Dashdamirov R. 27. Puchacz T. 7. Rakhmonaliyev U. 13. Lepinjica I. 10. Isayev A. 11. Parris K. 20. Mickels J. 21. Simic V.	1. Kreidl J. (G) 29. Puukko A. 28. Magassa B. 4. Adams K. 25. Antwi C. 10. Gasc V. R. 8. Pennanen P. (C) 16. Jyry T. 9. Engvall G. 24. Armah B. 20. Parzyszek P.
Substitutes
88. Fernandes R. 6. Khaybulaev A. 23. Lachaab Y. 19. Malouda A. 99. Mbina O. 4. McCarthy A. 94. Mirzammadov R. (G) 17. Mutallimov T. 1. Ramazanov A. (G) 16. Rustamli R. 33. Santos Junior E. A. 34. Severina X.	33. Hamalainen T. 17. Heinonen A. 3. Heiskanen S. 30. Jorginho 13. Kujasalo N. 23. Lotjonen A. 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 11. Moreno Ciorciari J. J. 12. Riihimaki H. (G) 6. Savolainen S. 37. Silen K. (G) 22. Touray S.
Coaches
Dambrauskas V.	Nuutinen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Simic V. ⚽, Lepinjica I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Engvall G. ↓, Touray S. ↑,
47', Jyry T. 🟨,
49', Parris K. 🟨,
61', Parzyszek P. ↓, Moreno Ciorciari J. J. ↑,
61', Armah B. ↓, Luyeye-Lutumba J. ↑,
66', Parris K. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
66', Isayev A. ↓, Mbina O. ↑,
68', Antwi C. ↓, Hamalainen T. ↑,
77', Moreno Ciorciari J. J. 🟨,
82', Gasc V. R. ↓, Kujasalo N. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Sabah has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

KuPS is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sabah may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sabah has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sabah is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Sabah Baku: 0.2%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
34	Sabah Baku	1	0	0	1	0:4	-4	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabah Baku FK
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	The New Saints - Sabah	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Sabah - The New Saints	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.26	Polissya Zhytomyr - Sabah	4:1 ✺
28.06.26	Ferencvárosi - Sabah	1:0 ✺
24.06.26	Universitatea Craiova - Sabah	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLLT
- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.07.26	SJK - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - Vardar	2:3 AET ✺
07.07.26	Vardar - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	HJK - KuPS Kuopio	0:4 ✺
23.06.26	KuPS Kuopio - Ilves	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLWWW

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