Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Vare Areena (Kuopio)

Referee: Leibovitz G. (Isr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Finland	KuPS TV
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	KuPS Kuopio		Sabah

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.40	2.35	Watch
	2.90	3.40	2.37
	2.63	3.30	2.50	Watch
	2.85	3.39	2.35
	2.84	3.55	2.39	Watch
	2.90	3.30	2.35
	2.78	3.45	2.49	Watch
	2.95	3.35	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.75)	3.39 ↓ (3.4)	2.4 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KuPS Kuopio
33.1%

Draw
27.7%

Sabah
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

27.7%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

28.1%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KuPS Kuopio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.1%	28.6%	39.3%

KuPS Kuopio - Sabah Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. KuPS will win (votes: 9 - 33.3%). Sabah will win (votes: 10 - 37%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 29.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabah: 18.8% – 55.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.92) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kreidl J. (G) 29. Puukko A. 28. Magassa B. 4. Adams K. 25. Antwi C. 10. Gasc V. R. 22. Touray S. 16. Jyry T. 8. Pennanen P. (C) 24. Armah B. 11. Moreno Ciorciari J. J.	92. Pokatilov S. (C) 80. Zedadka A. 3. Solvet S. 5. Dashdamirov R. 27. Puchacz T. 7. Rakhmonaliyev U. 10. Isayev A. 13. Lepinjica I. 11. Parris K. 20. Mickels J. 21. Simic V.
Substitutes
33. Hamalainen T. 17. Heinonen A. 3. Heiskanen S. 30. Jorginho 19. Kabuye C. 13. Kujasalo N. 23. Lotjonen A. 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 20. Parzyszek P. 12. Riihimaki H. (G) 6. Savolainen S. 37. Silen K. (G)	88. Fernandes R. 6. Khaybulaev A. 23. Lachaab Y. 99. Mbina O. 4. McCarthy A. 94. Mirzammadov R. (G) 17. Mutallimov T. 1. Ramazanov A. (G) 16. Rustamli R. 33. Santos Junior E. A. 34. Severina X.
Coaches
Nuutinen M.	Dambrauskas V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', 0 - 1, Simic V. ⚽, Puchacz T. (A),
58', Gasc V. R. ↓, Parzyszek P. ↑,
58', Armah B. ↓, Luyeye-Lutumba J. ↑,
60', Rakhmonaliyev U. 🟨,
61', Parris K. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
62', Pennanen P. 🟨,
70', 0 - 2, Mickels J. ⚽, Severina X. (A),
72', Touray S. 🟨,
74', Jyry T. ↓, Kujasalo N. ↑,
74', Antwi C. ↓, Heiskanen S. ↑,
78', Isayev A. ↓, Fernandes R. ↑,
78', Rakhmonaliyev U. ↓, Khaybulaev A. ↑,
78', Zedadka A. ↓, Mutallimov T. ↑,
81', Puukko A. ↓, Savolainen S. ↑,
87', Mickels J. ↓, Mbina O. ↑,
89', Magassa B. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

KuPS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sabah is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, KuPS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Sabah Baku: 0.2%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
34	Sabah Baku	1	0	0	1	0:4	-4	0

Last Results with these Odds

KuPS Kuopio - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 34.29%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Sabah - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 38.03%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
25.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Sabah - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.07.26	SJK - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - Vardar	2:3 AET ✺
07.07.26	Vardar - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLW
- Sabah Baku FK
UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Sabah - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
14.07.26	The New Saints - Sabah	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Sabah - The New Saints	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.26	Polissya Zhytomyr - Sabah	4:1 ✺
28.06.26	Ferencvárosi - Sabah	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
21.07.26	Sabah - KuPS Kuopio	1:0

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