Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Neo GSP Stadium (Nicosia)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Australia	Stan Sport
Cyprus	RIK 1
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 9
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 253
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Montenegro	Arena Sport 4
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 8, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 10
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	APOEL		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	6	3.7	1.62
	5	3.7	1.6
	5	3.75	1.65
	5.87	3.84	1.63
	5.15	3.88	1.63	Watch
	4.4	3.7	1.65
	5.44	4.05	1.65
	5	3.75	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.23 ↑ (4.2)	3.8 ↑ (3.6)	1.64 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

APOEL
17.9%

Draw
24.7%

Fiorentina
57.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

25.5%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

25.5%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

APOEL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for APOEL than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
1.6%	4.8%	93.7%

APOEL - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (59 of 63 users predict this - 93.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.63% – 99.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Belec V. (C) 29. Chebake I. 3. Petrovic R. 34. Laifis K. 16. Susic M. 70. Kostadinov G. 11. Donis A. 17. Abagna D. 8. Tejera S. 19. Quintilla X. 9. El Arabi Y.	1. Terracciano P. (G) 33. Kayode M. 22. Moreno M. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 3. Biraghi C. (C) 8. Mandragora R. 29. Adli Y. 24. Richardson A. 11. Ikone J. 99. Kouame C. 65. Parisi F.
Substitutes
12. Bah A. 22. Christodoulou A. (G) 30. Corbu M. 5. Dvali L. 10. Marquinhos 7. Meyer M. 78. Michos S. (G) 77. Ndongala D. 35. Polykarpou P. 18. Satsias G.	9. Beltran L. 4. Bove E. 23. Colpani A. 15. Comuzzo P. 43. de Gea D. (G) 2. Dodo 21. Gosens R. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. 66. Rubino T. 7. Sottil R.
Coaches
Jimenez M.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', Tejera S. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Donis A. ⚽, El Arabi Y. (A),
45+1', 2 - 0, Abagna D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Adli Y. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
49', Moreno M. 🟨,
57', Biraghi C. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,
57', Moreno M. ↓, Dodo ↑,
65', Richardson A. ↓, Bove E. ↑,
67', Tejera S. ↓, Satsias G. ↑,
69', Parisi F. ↓, Gosens R. ↑,
72', Martinez Quarta L. 🟨,
74', 2 - 1, Ikone J. ⚽, Kouame C. (A),
79', Donis A. 🟨,
79', Donis A. ↓, Dvali L. ↑,
88', Petrovic R. ↓, Polykarpou P. ↑,
89', El Arabi Y. ↓, Bah A. ↑,
89', Chebake I. 🟨,
90+6', Laifis K. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches APOEL is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fiorentina in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

APOEL could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fiorentina have a series of guest games.

In this match Fiorentina is a favorite.

There will not play in APOEL: Sarfo K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Gudmundsson A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Kean M. (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- APOEL
Cypriot First Division
02.11.24	Apollon Limassol - APOEL	0:0 ✺
28.10.24	APOEL - Anorthosis	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	APOEL - Borac Banja Luka	0:1 ✺
Cypriot First Division
19.10.24	Omonia Aradippou - APOEL	0:5 ✺
06.10.24	APOEL - AEK Larnaca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TWLWL
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
03.11.24	Torino - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
31.10.24	Genoa - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
27.10.24	Fiorentina - Roma	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	St. Gallen - Fiorentina	2:4 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.10.24	Lecce - Fiorentina	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWWWW

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