Match Info

Serie A - Round 33

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Maresca F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lecce		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.25	2.12	Watch
	3.75	3.34	2.16
	3.65	3.35	2.11	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.1
	3.61	3.41	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (3.43)	3.29 ↓ (3.36)	2.13 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
26.3%

Draw
28.9%

Fiorentina
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

28.1%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

28.6%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.5%	22.6%	69.8%

Lecce - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 4 - 8%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 35 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 22%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 57.3% – 82.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 29. Coulibaly L. 11. Ndri K. 99. Cheddira W.	43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
19. Banda L. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 16. Gandelman O. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 80. Kovac N. 36. Marchwinski F. 3. Ndaba C. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 9. Stulic N.	62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 69. Puzzoli G. 3. Rugani D. 19. Solomon M.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Gosens R. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
30', 0 - 1, Harrison J. ⚽, Mandragora R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Ndri K. ↓, Banda L. ↑,
57', Cheddira W. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
57', Ngom O. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
60', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
62', Pierotti S. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Tiago Gabriel ⚽, Gallo A. (A),
72', Tiago Gabriel 🟨,
76', de Gea D. 🟨,
80', Pongracic M. 🟨,
80', Ndour C. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
80', Fagioli N. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
80', Harrison J. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
82', Fazzini J. 🟨,
85', Gallo A. ↓, Ndaba C. ↑,
90+1', Solomon M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2.

Lecce has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fiorentina is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fiorentina will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Thigh Injury) Camarda F. (Shoulder Injury) Fofana S. (Inactive) Gaspar K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Parisi F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lecce: Sottil R. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Injury) Fortini N. (Back Injury) Kean M. (Calf Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 1:2.6).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.35% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Last Results with these Odds

Lecce - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 27.53%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Lecce - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Roma - Lecce	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Napoli - Lecce	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lecce - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLLW
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Fiorentina - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.04.26	Fiorentina - Lazio	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Verona - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1
28.02.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0
20.10.24	Lecce - Fiorentina	0:6
02.02.24	Lecce - Fiorentina	3:2
27.08.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	2:2
19.03.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0
17.10.22	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1

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