Match Info

Serie A - Round 33

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Maresca F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	15:45	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	04:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Brazil	15:45	Disney+
Bulgaria	21:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	14:45	DAZN Canada, FuboTV
Chile	14:45	Disney+
China	02:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	13:45	Disney+, ESPN
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	20:45	DAZN France
Georgia	22:45	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	20:45	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 2
Haiti	14:45	Tele Haiti
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	20:45	Arena 4
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Iraq	21:45	Almanasa, Al Rabiaa Sport
Italy	20:45	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Kuwait	21:45	Shasha
Malaysia	02:45	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	20:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	12:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	06:45	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	20:45	VG+
Peru	13:45	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV2
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Saudi Arabia	21:45	STC TV
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	20:45	Sport 1
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 3
South Africa	20:45	SuperSport Football
South Korea	03:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	TV4 Play
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	01:45	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	19:45	Diwan Sport
Turkey	21:45	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
United Kingdom	19:45	DAZN
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	23:45	Futbol TV, Zor TV
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+
Vietnam	01:45	TV 360, VTVcab
International	18:45	Starzplay Sports app


	Lecce		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.25	2.12	Watch
	3.75	3.34	2.16
	3.65	3.35	2.11	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.1
	3.61	3.41	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (3.43)	3.29 ↓ (3.36)	2.13 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
26.3%

Draw
28.9%

Fiorentina
44.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.5%

28.1%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

28.5%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.5%	22.6%	69.8%

Lecce - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 4 - 8%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 35 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 22%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 57.3% – 82.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 29. Coulibaly L. 11. Ndri K. 99. Cheddira W.	43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
19. Banda L. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 16. Gandelman O. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 80. Kovac N. 36. Marchwinski F. 3. Ndaba C. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 9. Stulic N.	62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 69. Puzzoli G. 3. Rugani D. 19. Solomon M.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Gosens R. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
30', 0 - 1, Harrison J. ⚽, Mandragora R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Ndri K. ↓, Banda L. ↑,
57', Cheddira W. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
57', Ngom O. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
60', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
62', Pierotti S. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Tiago Gabriel ⚽, Gallo A. (A),
72', Tiago Gabriel 🟨,
76', de Gea D. 🟨,
80', Pongracic M. 🟨,
80', Ndour C. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
80', Fagioli N. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
80', Harrison J. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
82', Fazzini J. 🟨,
85', Gallo A. ↓, Ndaba C. ↑,
90+1', Solomon M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2.

Lecce has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fiorentina is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fiorentina will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Thigh Injury) Camarda F. (Shoulder Injury) Fofana S. (Inactive) Gaspar K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Parisi F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lecce: Sottil R. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Injury) Fortini N. (Back Injury) Kean M. (Calf Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 1:2.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Lecce	9	3	0	6	10:19	-9	9
18	Fiorentina	9	1	2	6	11:21	-10	5

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.05% Lecce: 0.02%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Lecce - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Roma - Lecce	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Napoli - Lecce	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lecce - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLLW
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Fiorentina - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.04.26	Fiorentina - Lazio	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.04.26	Verona - Fiorentina	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	0:1
28.02.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0
20.10.24	Lecce - Fiorentina	0:6
02.02.24	Lecce - Fiorentina	3:2
27.08.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	2:2
19.03.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0
17.10.22	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1

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