Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fiorentina		Roma

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.4	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.4
	3.15	3.05	2.42	Watch
	3.24	3.2	2.5
	2.95	2.99	2.57	Watch
	3.15	3.33	2.52
	2.98	3.3	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.15)	3.2 ↓ (3.5)	2.46 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
31.2%

Draw
29.9%

Roma
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

27.1%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

26.8%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.1%	31%	44.8%

Fiorentina - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 7 - 24.1%). Roma will win (votes: 13 - 44.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 31%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 26.7% – 62.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 20%). Roma (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fiorentina (2.15) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Fiorentina (1.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Roma (4.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Roma (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Roma (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 8. Mandragora R. 21. Gosens R. 22. Fazzini J. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.	99. Svilar M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 43. Wesley Franca 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 12. Tsimikas K. 18. Soule M. 35. Baldanzi T. 9. Dovbyk A.
Substitutes
15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 44. Fagioli N. 29. Fortini N. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 11. Sabiri A. 26. Viti M.	66. Buba Aboubacar 21. Dybala P. 8. El Aynaoui N. 92. El Shaarawy S. 11. Ferguson E. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 22. Hermoso M. 7. Pellegrini Lo. 61. Pisilli N. 2. Rensch D. 32. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', Cristante B. 🟨,
14', 1 - 0, Kean M. ⚽, Nicolussi Caviglia H. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Soule M. ⚽, Dovbyk A. (A),
30', 1 - 2, Cristante B. ⚽, Soule M. (A),
43', Gudmundsson A. 🟨,
44', Pioli S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
59', Dovbyk A. ↓, Dybala P. ↑,
59', Baldanzi T. ↓, Pellegrini Lo. ↑,
65', Tsimikas K. 🟨,
67', Fazzini J. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
68', Tsimikas K. ↓, Rensch D. ↑,
68', Wesley Franca 🟨,
70', Mari P. 🟨,
75', Mandragora R. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,
75', Mari P. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
81', Wesley Franca ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,
81', Dodo ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
81', Soule M. ↓, El Aynaoui N. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Roma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Bailey L. (Thigh Injury) Bove E. (Heart Problems) Dybala P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 32:37. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 2.4:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Roma - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.83%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Fiorentina - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Pisa - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Fiorentina - Como	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
31.08.25	Torino - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WTLLT
- AS Roma
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Roma - Lille	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Roma - Verona	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Nice - Roma	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Lazio - Roma	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Roma - Torino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
04.05.25	Roma - Fiorentina	1:0
27.10.24	Fiorentina - Roma	5:1
10.03.24	Fiorentina - Roma	2:2
10.12.23	Roma - Fiorentina	1:1
27.05.23	Fiorentina - Roma	2:1
15.01.23	Roma - Fiorentina	2:0
09.05.22	Fiorentina - Roma	2:0

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