Match Info

USL League One

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lancaster Municipal Stadium (Lancaster, CA) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	23:30	Disney+
Brazil	23:30	Disney+
Chile	23:30	Disney+
Colombia	21:30	Disney+
Mexico	20:30	Disney+
Peru	21:30	Disney+
Uruguay	23:30	Disney+
Usa	22:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	22:30	Disney+


	AV Alta		Greenville Triumph

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.65
	2.18	3.40	2.70
	2.39	3.41	2.88
	2.12	3.81	2.99	Watch
	2.35	3.15	2.85
	2.20	3.54	2.69	Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.35)	3.4 (3.4)	2.79 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AV Alta
40.5%

Draw
26.8%

Greenville Triumph
32.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38%

26.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

23.9%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AV Alta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Greenville Triumph has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AV Alta than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greenville Triumph than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

AV Alta - Greenville Triumph Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Smith D. (G) 5. Alassane M. 15. Winum M. 4. Pajaro M. (C) 16. Ceja E. 3. Ortiz A. 21. Villalobos J. 99. Bahena Jr C. 23. Thomas R. 19. Anderson C. 18. Aoumaich A.	30. Torman S. (G) 6. Agyaakwah I. 4. Sims T. 5. Fricke B. (C) 15. Patti A. 20. Villanueva A. 27. Nour M. 9. Robles R. 17. Larsen B. 8. Herrera C. 19. Liadi A.
Substitutes
40. Aviles D. 30. Gonzalez M. (G) 24. Higareda S. 10. Ibarra M. 32. Jahng E. 6. Lay O. 44. Pehlivanov K. 52. Ramos S. 12. Relerford N.	77. Benton D. 1. Bilichuk R. (G) 7. Boyce D. 25. Castro L. 18. Evans C. 12. Lee E. 23. White E.
Coaches
Kleiban B.	Tyson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Liadi A. ⚽, Nour M. (A),
36', 0 - 2, Liadi A. ⚽,
38', Winum M. 🟨,
44', Agyaakwah I. 🟨,
45+3', Nour M. 🟨,
45+5', Bahena Jr C. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 2, Bahena Jr C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Winum M. ↓, Lay O. ↑,
58', 2 - 2, Aoumaich A. ⚽, Bahena Jr C. (A),
65', Thomas R. 🟨,
66', Agyaakwah I. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
66', Larsen B. ↓, Benton D. ↑,
67', Thomas R. ↓, Higareda S. ↑,
69', Ceja E. 🟨,
74', Liadi A. 🟨,
76', Ceja E. ↓, Relerford N. ↑,
77', Villanueva A. ↓, Boyce D. ↑,
83', Robles R. ↓, White E. ↑,
86', Anderson C. ↓, Ibarra M. ↑,
87', Aoumaich A. ↓, Ramos S. ↑,
90+1', Sims T. 🟨,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 13th and 16th).

Both teams have struggled badly to pick up points in their latest fixtures.

Alta could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Alta has faced a series of away games on the road.

Alta is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Alta has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:4 (averaging 1.7:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alta against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	AV Alta	32	8	10	14	40:48	-8	34
15	Greenville	32	8	6	18	37:60	-23	30

Last Results with these Odds

Greenville Triumph - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.73%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AV Alta FC
USL League One
03.10.26	Westchester SC - AV Alta	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Forward Madison - AV Alta	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - AV Alta	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	AV Alta - One Knoxville	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Charlotte Independence - AV Alta	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Greenville Triumph
USL League One
03.10.26	Boise - Greenville Triumph	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Greenville Triumph - Union Omaha	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Sarasota Paradise - Greenville Triumph	6:0 ✺
16.09.26	Greenville Triumph - Corpus Christi	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Greenville Triumph - Fort Wayne	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
20.06.26	Greenville Triumph - AV Alta	1:2
16.08.25	AV Alta - Greenville Triumph	1:1
17.05.25	Greenville Triumph - AV Alta	2:2

AV Alta - Greenville Triumph