Match Info

Date: 6 October 2022, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Saggi R. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	AZ Alkmaar		Apollon Limassol

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	11
	1.33	5	8.5
	1.32	5.2	10
	1.32	5	8.6
	1.32	5.37	10.45
	1.32	5.05	8.7
	1.34	5.4	9.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.38)	5.15 ↑ (4.69)	9.49 ↑ (7.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
71.6%

Draw
18.4%

Apollon Limassol
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

19.9%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.5%

19.1%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Apollon Limassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Apollon Limassol than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	5.7%	14.3%

AZ Alkmaar - Apollon Limassol Predictions

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

AZ has currently - 6, has a good chance of 1st (80%), has a chance of 2nd (16%), has a very small chance of 3rd (3%), has a good chance of round of 16 (91%), has a good chance of qtrs (55%), has a chance of semis (30%), has a small chance of final (15%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

Apollon Limassol has currently - 1, has a very small chance of 1st (2%), has a small chance of 2nd (11%), has a good chance of 3rd (65%), has a small chance of round of 16 (7%), has a very small chance of qtrs (2%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 54, importance 48, match rating 51. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

AZ in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Apollon Limassol is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match AZ is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Martins Indi B. (Injury)

There will not play in Apollon Limassol: Dabo B. (Muscle Injury) Diguiny N. (Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Evjen H. (Ankle Injury) Pavlidis V. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's AZ to win the game is with odds 1.33.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
01.10.22	Groningen - AZ Alkmaar	1:4 ✺
18.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - Vaduz	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Dnipro-1 - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWTW
- Apollon Limassol
Cypriot First Division
01.10.22	Apollon Limassol - Paphos	1:1 ✺
18.09.22	Nea Salamis - Apollon Limassol	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	Apollon Limassol - Dnipro-1	1:3 ✺
Cypriot First Division
11.09.22	Apollon Limassol - Omonia	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Vaduz - Apollon Limassol	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLWT

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