Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 28

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Euroborg (Groningen)

Referee: Vos M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Groningen		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.8	2.3	Watch
	2.55	3.7	2.55
	2.85	3.7	2.32
	2.96	3.76	2.33
	2.8	3.78	2.32	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.25
	2.88	3.7	2.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.28)	3.71 ↑ (3.5)	2.35 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Groningen
34%

Draw
25.6%

AZ Alkmaar
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

26.2%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

27.2%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Groningen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Groningen's form might have worsened.

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Groningen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Groningen - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Groningen will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). AZ will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - AZ (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jurjus H. (G) 5. Rente M. (C) 3. Blokzijl T. 4. Janse D. 43. Peersman M. 10. Taha Y. 8. de Jonge T. 18. Land T. 14. Schreuders J. 26. van Bergen T. 17. van der Werff D.	41. Zoet J. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 26. Smit K. 17. Jensen I. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 27. Daal R. 9. Parrott T.
Substitutes
24. Baron D. (G) 22. Bouland S. 44. Dillema J. 48. Kelder R. 27. Mendes R. 16. Mercera T. 34. Metu R. 2. Prins W. 20. Seuntjens M. 13. Stubljar L. (G) 15. van der Laan E. 9. Willumsson B.	20. Boogaard K. 31. Deen D. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 18. Ichihara R. 45. Kovacs B. 35. Meerdink M. 24. Oufkir A. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 7. Weslley Patati
Coaches
Lukkien D.	Echteld L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Peersman M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kasius D. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
46', Penetra ↓, van Duijl B. ↑,
57', de Jonge T. ↓, Willumsson B. ↑,
58', 2 - 0, van Bergen T. ⚽, van der Werff D. (A),
67', Goes W. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
67', Jensen I. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
76', 3 - 0, Land T. ⚽, Rente M. (A),
77', Peersman M. ↓, Prins W. ↑,
79', Daal R. 🟨,
82', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Ichihara R. ↑,
88', Taha Y. ↓, Mercera T. ↑,
88', Land T. ↓, Mendes R. ↑,
90+1', Mercera T. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 0.

Groningen is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AZ is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Groningen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Groningen: Hoekstra M. (Injury) Resink S. (Knee Injury) Vaessen E. (Injury) Zawada O. (Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Chavez Garcia M. (Injury) Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Hornkamp J. (Injury) Maikuma S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 16:37. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Groningen won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15:13	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
13.03.26	Zwolle - Groningen	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Groningen - Ajax	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Volendam - Groningen	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Twente - Groningen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Groningen - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWLLL
- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Sparta Prague - AZ Alkmaar	0:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
15.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Prague	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.03.26	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	2:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
04.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
10.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	4:1
11.05.25	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	3:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
18.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	3:1
Dutch Eredivisie
25.08.24	Groningen - AZ Alkmaar	0:0
11.03.23	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	1:0
01.10.22	Groningen - AZ Alkmaar	1:4
21.12.21	AZ Alkmaar - Groningen	1:0

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