Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 22

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN Extra
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Suriname	QN Sports
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	AZ Alkmaar		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.7	2.75	Watch
	2.42	3.55	2.8
	2.41	3.68	2.88
	2.37	3.66	2.8	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.75
	2.4	3.67	2.84	Watch
	2.33	3.5	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.22)	3.59 ↓ (3.67)	2.8 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
39.9%

Draw
26.3%

Ajax
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

25.3%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

24.5%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	45.8%	33.3%

AZ Alkmaar - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Ajax will win (votes: 8 - 34.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 43.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.2% – 63.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 25%). Ajax (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Ajax (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Ajax (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Zoet J. (G) 2. Maikuma S. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. (C) 20. Boogaard K. 17. Jensen I. 33. Sin M. 27. Daal R. 9. Parrott T.	1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 6. Regeer Y. 48. Steur S. 43. Bounida R. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
15. Chavez Garcia M. 31. Deen D. (G) 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 19. Hornkamp J. 18. Ichihara R. 24. Oufkir A. 56. Robbemond R. 11. Sadiq I. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 7. Weslley Patati	30. Bouwman A. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 4. Itakura K. 24. Mokio J. 52. Reverson P. (G) 2. Rosa L. 32. Tomiyasu T. 25. Weghorst W. 47. Zinchenko O.
Coaches
Echteld L.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Maikuma S. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sin M. ↓, Hornkamp J. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Goes W. ⚽,
59', de Wit M. 🟨,
66', Klaassen D. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
73', Daal R. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
73', Jensen I. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
76', Steur S. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
76', Bounida R. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
76', Wijndal O. ↓, Zinchenko O. ↑,
89', Godts M. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Fitz-Jim K. ⚽, Edvardsen O. (A),
90+5', Sadiq I. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AZ won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.6:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18:6	12	19
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21:9	12	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	2:1 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
31.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	1:3 ✺
25.01.26	Telstar - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
21.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWTL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
01.02.26	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Ajax - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.26	Ajax - Volendam	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Villarreal - Ajax	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.26	Ajax - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	6:0
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	0:2
16.03.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	2:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.25	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:0
Dutch Eredivisie
08.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:1
25.02.24	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:0
08.10.23	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	1:2

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