Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 3 November 2022, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Papapetrou A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay


	AZ Alkmaar		Dnipro-1

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.2	5
	1.6	4.1	4.8
	1.56	4.6	5.4
	1.6	4.2	4.9
	1.62	4.24	5.45
	1.33	4.6	7.5
	1.59	4.2	4.95
	1.63	4.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.4)	4.31 ↓ (4.57)	5.38 ↓ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
60.3%

Draw
22%

Dnipro-1
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

20.1%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

21%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

Dnipro-1 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dnipro-1 than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	3.3%	30%

AZ Alkmaar - Dnipro 1 Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). Dnipro-1 will win (votes: 9 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

AZ has currently - 12, has a good chance of 1st (78%), has a chance of 2nd (22%), has not chance of 3rd, was already of knockout phase, has a good chance of round of 16 (91%), has a good chance of qtrs (53%), has a chance of semis (27%), has a small chance of final (13%), has a small chance of win league (6%).

Dnipro-1 has currently - 10, has a chance of 1st (22%), has a good chance of 2nd (78%), has not chance of 3rd, was already of knockout phase, has a good chance of round of 16 (58%), has a chance of qtrs (28%), has a small chance of semis (11%), has a very small chance of final (4%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has quality 59, importance 50, match rating 54. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches AZ is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Dnipro-1 is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match AZ is a favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Evjen H. (Ankle Injury) Martins Indi B. (Muscle Injury) Vanheusden Z. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Dnipro-1: Blanco D. (Injury) Gorbunov S. (Injury) Gromov A. (Injury) Luchkevych V. (Injury) Purita E. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches AZ won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
30.10.22	AZ Alkmaar - Volendam	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.10.22	Vaduz - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
23.10.22	Excelsior - AZ Alkmaar	2:1 ✺
16.10.22	AZ Alkmaar - Feyenoord	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.10.22	Apollon Limassol - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WWLLL
- FC Dnipro-1
Ukrainian Premier League
30.10.22	Dnipro-1 - Chornomorets Odesa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.10.22	Dnipro-1 - Apollon Limassol	1:0 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
23.10.22	Metalist Kharkiv - Dnipro-1	0:1 ✺
19.10.22	Dnipro-1 - Inhulets	2:2 ✺
16.10.22	Rukh Lviv - Dnipro-1	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Dnipro-1 - AZ Alkmaar	0:1

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