Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2024, Wednesday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Xhaja J. (Alb)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Disney+


	AZ Alkmaar		Elfsborg

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.5	6
	1.5	4.5	6
	1.5	4.5	6.5
	1.49	4.6	6.51
	1.48	4.61	6.26	Watch
	1.44	4.75	6
	1.54	4.49	6.93
	1.48	4.6	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.52)	4.57 ↑ (4.49)	6.38 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
64.1%

Draw
20.9%

Elfsborg
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

21.3%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

20.5%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Elfsborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elfsborg than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	8%	2%

AZ Alkmaar - Elfsborg Predictions

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (45 of 48 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 16. Maikuma S. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 18. Wolfe D. M. 8. Clasie J. (C) 10. Mijnans S. 6. Koopmeiners P. 11. Sadiq I. 9. Parrott T. 7. van Bommel R.	31. Pettersson I. (G) 8. Holmen S. (C) 29. Buhari I. 2. Yegbe T. 15. Hedlund S. 27. Zeneli B. 16. Ouma T. 23. Hult N. 9. Zeneli A. 10. Baidoo M. 18. Qasem A.
Substitutes
17. Addai J. 14. Belic K. 28. Buurmeester Z. 22. Dekker M. 34. de Wit M. 30. Kasius D. 23. Lahdo M. 35. Meerdink M. 21. Poku E. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)	14. Abdullai J. 6. Baldursson A. F. 30. Bundgaard M. (G) 17. Frick P. 11. Gudmundsson E. A. 4. Henriksson G. 12. Holten E. 19. Kaib R. 13. Larsson J. 20. Rapp G. 7. Thomasen J. 1. Uppenberg M. (G)
Coaches
Martens M.	Hiljemark O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Ouma T. ⚽, Hedlund S. (A),
44', 1 - 1, van Bommel R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', 2 - 1, van Bommel R. ⚽,
53', 2 - 2, Hedlund S. ⚽, Ouma T. (A),
55', Zeneli A. ↓, Abdullai J. ↑,
57', Sadiq I. ↓, Addai J. ↑,
59', Ouma T. 🟨,
74', 3 - 2, Parrott T. (Pen),
78', Ouma T. ↓, Larsson J. ↑,
78', Baidoo M. ↓, Frick P. ↑,
80', Mijnans S. 🟨,
83', Abdullai J. 🟨,
84', Mijnans S. ↓, Buurmeester Z. ↑,
84', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Belic K. ↑,
86', Holmen S. 🟥,
88', Hult N. ↓, Kaib R. ↑,
88', Buhari I. ↓, Holten E. ↑,
90', van Bommel R. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
90+3', Belic K. 🟨,

Preview

AZ in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Elfsborg is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Elfsborg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match AZ is absolute favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Martins Indi B. (Suspended)

There are questionable in AZ: Westerveld S. (Knee Injury) de Wit M. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Elfsborg: Thomasen J. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's AZ to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
20.09.24	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
14.09.24	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	9:1 ✺
30.08.24	Waalwijk - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
25.08.24	Groningen - AZ Alkmaar	0:0 ✺
17.08.24	AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWTW
- IF Elfsborg
Swedish Allsvenskan
22.09.24	Elfsborg - Hammarby	0:0 ✺
19.09.24	Elfsborg - Norrköping	2:2 ✺
15.09.24	Halmstad - Elfsborg	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Brommapojkarna - Elfsborg	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.08.24	Elfsborg - Molde	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TTWTL

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