Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 19

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: MAC³PARK Stadion (Zwolle)

Referee: Higler D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Triller TV+


	Zwolle		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.75	1.5	Watch
	5.85	4.65	1.5
	5.74	4.75	1.5	Watch
	5	4.2	1.5
	5.86	4.73	1.54	Watch
	6	4.5	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.7 ↑ (4.47)	4.6 ↑ (3.99)	1.5 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zwolle
16.6%

Draw
20.5%

AZ Alkmaar
62.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

23.5%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9%

22.4%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zwolle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	17.6%	58.8%

Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Zwolle will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). AZ will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - AZ (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Zwolle (5.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Zwolle (votes: 1 - 20%). AZ (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. de Graaff T. (G) 6. Gooijer T. 28. Graves S. 4. Garcia MacNulty A. 2. Floranus S. 25. Oosting T. 30. Thomas R. (C) 8. Buurmeester Z. 9. Namli Y. 10. Kostons K. 7. Shoretire S.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 34. de Wit M. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 15. Chavez Garcia M. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 6. Koopmeiners P. 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.
Substitutes
3. Aertssen O. 48. Bakker L. (G) 29. Buitink T. 22. de Rooij K. 19. Faberski J. 34. Fichtinger N. 35. Monteiro J. 20. Reiziger G. 42. Ruward D. 41. Verduin D. (G)	20. Boogaard K. 43. Bouziane W. 27. Daal R. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 19. Hornkamp J. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Van Der Vegt H.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Shoretire S. ⚽, Namli Y. (A),
23', Penetra 🟨,
26', 2 - 0, Garcia MacNulty A. ⚽, Namli Y. (A),
43', Mijnans S. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jensen I. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
46', Buurmeester Z. ↓, Monteiro J. ↑,
55', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
63', Graves S. ↓, Aertssen O. ↑,
67', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
67', Penetra ↓, Hornkamp J. ↑,
71', Namli Y. ↓, de Rooij K. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Koopmeiners P. ⚽,
82', Weslley Patati ↓, Bouziane W. ↑,
90+2', Oosting T. ↓, Fichtinger N. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Shoretire S. ⚽, Floranus S. (A),
90+5', Shoretire S. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 0.

Recent form of Zwolle has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AZ is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Zwolle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, AZ is the team to beat.

There will not play in Zwolle: Lagsir S. (Inactive) Schendelaar J. (Injury) Velanas O. (Ankle Injury) Voute D. (Inactive) van der Haar D. (Inactive)

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Meerdink M. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Zwolle: Graves S. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zwolle won 1 match, drew 7 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:47. (average 0.9:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Zwolle won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.8:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19
16	Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6:20	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PEC Zwolle
Dutch Eredivisie
10.01.26	Twente - Zwolle	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Excelsior - Zwolle	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Zwolle - Fortuna Sittard	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Feyenoord - Zwolle	6:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.12.25	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TLWLL
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	6:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Volendam	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - AZ Alkmaar	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	AZ Alkmaar - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
11.12.25	Drita Gjilan - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch KNVB Beker
03.12.25	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:3
Dutch Eredivisie
24.09.25	AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle	2:2
09.02.25	AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle	2:0
20.09.24	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:2
20.01.24	AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle	2:2
24.09.23	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	0:3
Club Friendly
02.07.22	AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle	3:1

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