Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Beaton J. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Premier League, SuperSport Variety 2
Argentina	17:00	ESPN 3
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 6
Azerbaijan	00:00	CBC Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	ESPN 3
China	04:00	QQ Sports
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 8
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 4
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Premium 5
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 4
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 6, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	23:00	TRT 1
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 7
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 7
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Inter
International	20:00	Disney+


	AZ Alkmaar		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3
	3	3.4	2.3
	3.05	3.45	2.32
	3.13	3.5	2.38
	3.07	3.43	2.31	Watch
	3	3.5	2.3
	3.1	3.69	2.37
	3.1	3.5	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.55)	3.5 ↑ (3.45)	2.33 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
31.4%

Draw
27.4%

Fenerbahçe
41.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

27.3%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fenerbahçe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	42.9%	46.4%

AZ Alkmaar - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 13 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 30.8% – 69.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 16. Maikuma S. 5. Penetra 22. Dekker M. 34. de Wit M. 33. Kwakman D. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 6. Koopmeiners P. 17. Addai J. 9. Parrott T. 23. Lahdo M.	40. Livakovic D. (G) 21. Osayi-Samuel B. 50. Rodrigo Becao 4. Soyuncu C. 16. Muldur M. 13. Fred 5. Yuksek I. 34. Amrabat S. 97. Saint-Maximin A. 9. Dzeko E. (C) 10. Tadic D.
Substitutes
37. Daal R. 52. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 30. Kasius D. 35. Meerdink M. 26. Smit K. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 41. Zoet J. (G)	3. Akaydin S. 95. Akcicek Y. 80. Akyazi K. 54. Cetin E. (G) 42. Dursun M. 1. Egribayat I. (G) 19. En Nesyri Y. 53. Szymanski S. 81. Tograk S. 23. Tosun C. 8. Yandas M.
Coaches
Martens M.	Gole Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Lahdo M. ↓, Daal R. ↑,
49', Saint-Maximin A. 🟨,
51', Mijnans S. 🟨,
54', Yuksek I. 🟨,
57', Yuksek I. ↓, En Nesyri Y. ↑,
57', Saint-Maximin A. ↓, Szymanski S. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Daal R. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
62', En Nesyri Y. (Pen),
63', Rodrigo Becao 🟨,
64', Addai J. ↓, Smit K. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, En Nesyri Y. ⚽, Dzeko E. (A),
72', Parrott T. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
72', de Wit M. ↓, Kasius D. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Smit K. ⚽, Mijnans S. (A),
79', Rodrigo Becao ↓, Yandas M. ↑,
81', Muldur M. ↓, Tosun C. ↑,
84', Fred 🟨,
86', Osayi-Samuel B. 🟨,
87', 3 - 1, Kasius D. ⚽, Smit K. (A),
88', Maikuma S. ↓, Goes W. ↑,
90+2', Daal R. 🟨,
90+4', Dzeko E. 🟨,

Preview

AZ has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fenerbahçe is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in AZ: Buurmeester Z. (Injury) Sadiq I. (Muscle Injury) Wolfe D. M. (Red Card) van Bommel R. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Oosterwolde J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Belic K. (Injury) Martins Indi B. (Muscle Injury) Schouten L. (Injury) Westerveld S. (Knee Injury) Zeefuik L. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches AZ won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
02.11.24	Feyenoord - AZ Alkmaar	3:2 ✺
27.10.24	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.10.24	Tottenham Hotspur - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
19.10.24	AZ Alkmaar - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
06.10.24	Fortuna Sittard - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
03.11.24	Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
27.10.24	Fenerbahçe - Bodrumspor	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.10.24	Fenerbahçe - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
20.10.24	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
03.10.24	Twente - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
11.01.19	Fenerbahçe - AZ Alkmaar	3:2

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