Match Info

Date: 3 December 2020, Thursday


	AZ Alkmaar		Napoli

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.1	1.66
	4.75	4.25	1.65
	4.9	4.2	1.72
	4.7	4	1.64
	4.92	4.24	1.67
	4.8	3.9	1.67
	5.25	4.2	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.87 ↑ (4.14)	4.13 ↑ (3.81)	1.68 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
19.7%

Draw
23.2%

Napoli
57.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

24.9%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

19.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Napoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.7%	18.4%	70.9%

AZ Alkmaar - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 103 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 11 - 10.7%). Napoli will win (votes: 73 - 70.9%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 18.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 62.1% – 79.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

AZ has a chance of round of 32 (36%), has a small chance of round of 16 (14%), has a very small chance of qtrs (5%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Napoli has a good chance of round of 32 (83%), has a good chance of round of 16 (60%), has a chance of qtrs (38%), has a chance of semis (22%), has a small chance of final (13%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

In this match Napoli is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches AZ won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
29.11.20	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.11.20	AZ Alkmaar - Real Sociedad	0:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.20	AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	1:0 ✺
08.11.20	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
05.11.20	Real Sociedad - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTWWL
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
29.11.20	Napoli - Roma	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.11.20	Napoli - Rijeka	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.20	Napoli - Milan	1:3 ✺
08.11.20	Bologna - Napoli	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
05.11.20	Rijeka - Napoli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
22.10.20	Napoli - AZ Alkmaar	0:1

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