Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 5

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Asito Stadium (Almelo)

Referee: Nijhuis B. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Heracles Almelo		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.33	1.53	Watch
	6	4.4	1.51
	5.45	4.7	1.52
	5.9	4.59	1.52
	4.03	3.01	2.07	Watch
	5	4.2	1.55
	5.72	4.61	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.37 ↓ (5.8)	4.26 ↓ (4.44)	1.61 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
17.8%

Draw
22.5%

AZ Alkmaar
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

21.4%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

21%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Heracles (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - AZ (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (19 of 19 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Heracles (votes: 1 - 14.3%). AZ (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. de Keijzer F. (G) 2. Benita M. 24. Mesik I. 4. Mirani D. (C) 5. van der Kust D. 70. Hrustic A. 10. Bruns T. 32. Scheperman S. 7. Limbombe B. 9. Hornkamp J. 21. Borges Sanches Y.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 8. Clasie J. 10. Mijnans S. 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 35. Meerdink M. 27. Daal R.
Substitutes
8. Engels M. 16. Jansink T. (G) 19. Kulenovic L. 30. Mantel R. (G) 22. Milani L. 73. Ould Chikh W. 23. te Wierik M. 17. van Gilst T. 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 3. Wieckhoff J. 13. Zamburek J.	15. Chavez Garcia M. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 17. Jensen I. 6. Koopmeiners P. 21. Kwakman D. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Sibum B.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Penetra ⚽,
11', Penetra 🟨,
28', Kasius D. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Mirani D. ⚽, Limbombe B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', de Wit M. 🟨,
69', Weslley Patati ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
69', Daal R. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
70', Borges Sanches Y. ↓, Engels M. ↑,
70', Bruns T. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
74', Clasie J. 🟨,
74', Hrustic A. 🟨,
77', 1 - 2, Meerdink M. ⚽, Smit K. (A),
79', Mijnans S. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
83', Hrustic A. ↓, Zamburek J. ↑,
83', Limbombe B. ↓, Kulenovic L. ↑,
84', van der Kust D. ↓, Ould Chikh W. ↑,
84', Smit K. ↓, Koopmeiners P. ↑,
84', Meerdink M. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
90+1', Zeefuik L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 2.

Recent form of Heracles has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AZ is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, AZ has had a series of away games.

In this match, AZ is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Heracles: Cestic S. (Broken ankle) Engels M. (Hamstring Injury) Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Maikuma S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Parrott T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 26:53. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:20. (average 2.1:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
29.08.25	Groningen - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Ajax - Heracles Almelo	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Heracles Almelo - NEC Nijmegen	1:4 ✺
10.08.25	Utrecht - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Heracles Almelo - Waalwijk	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
31.08.25	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	AZ Alkmaar - Levski Sofia	4:1 ✺
21.08.25	Levski Sofia - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.08.25	Volendam - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Vaduz - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
13.04.25	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
27.02.25	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 penalties
Dutch Eredivisie
01.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	1:0
03.04.24	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	5:0
28.09.23	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	1:1
19.02.22	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	2:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
15.12.21	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	4:1

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