Match Info

Serie A - Round 25

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, W-sport, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	DAZN, Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	W-sport
Bolivia	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, FuboTV, TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	DAZN
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	DAZN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1, TRT Spor
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	DAZN, Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	DAZN, Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Napoli		Roma

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.8	3.3	Watch
	2.5	2.8	3.3
	2.58	2.88	3.2	Watch
	2.59	2.9	3.34
	2.59	2.93	3.29	Watch
	2.5	2.7	3.1
	2.66	2.91	3.39
	2.5	2.85	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.25)	2.85 ↓ (3.12)	3.28 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
37.4%

Draw
33.5%

Roma
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

30.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

31.3%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Napoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.3%	52.2%	13.4%

Napoli - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Napoli will win (votes: 23 - 35.4%). Roma will win (votes: 8 - 12.3%). It will Tie (votes: 34 - 52.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40.2% – 64.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Tie (votes: 11 - 68.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Roma (2.25) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Roma (1.53) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Roma (2.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 71.4%) .

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Napoli (4.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 9 - 32.1%). Roma (votes: 8 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 11 - 39.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 13. Rrahmani A. 4. Buongiorno A. 31. Beukema S. 3. Gutierrez M. 68. Lobotka S. 20. Elmas E. 37. Spinazzola L. 21. Politano M. (C) 26. Vergara A. 19. Hojlund R.	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 87. Ghilardi D. 19. Celik Z. 4. Cristante B. (C) 61. Pisilli N. 43. Wesley Franca 7. Pellegrini Lo. 97. Zaragoza B. 14. Malen D.
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 14. Contini N. (G) 6. Gilmour B. 23. Giovane 9. Lukaku R. 30. Mazzocchi P. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M.	3. Angelino 75. Della Rocca M. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 8. El Aynaoui N. 95. Gollini P. (G) 2. Rensch D. 18. Soule M. 12. Tsimikas K. 78. Vaz R. 20. Venturino L. 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Conte A.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Malen D. ⚽, Zaragoza B. (A),
26', Mancini G. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Spinazzola L. ⚽, Elmas E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Zaragoza B. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
65', Pisilli N. ↓, El Aynaoui N. ↑,
65', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Venturino L. ↑,
69', Rrahmani A. 🟨,
70', Rrahmani A. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
70', Spinazzola L. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Malen D. (Penalty Awarded),
73', Wesley Franca ↓, Tsimikas K. ↑,
73', Malen D. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
79', Elmas E. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,
79', Vergara A. ↓, Giovane ↑,
82', 2 - 2, Alisson Santos ⚽, Giovane (A),
85', Politano M. ↓, Mazzocchi P. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) David Neres (Ankle Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Di Lorenzo G. (Knee Injury) Juan Jesus (Red Card) McTominay S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Dovbyk A. (Groin Injury) Hermoso M. (Hip Injury) Kone M. (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Roma: El Shaarawy S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Ferguson E. (Ankle Injury) Soule M. (Hernia) Vaz R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:21. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.8:1.4).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.31% Napoli: 3.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Coppa Italia
10.02.26	Napoli - Como	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
07.02.26	Genoa - Napoli	2:3 ✺
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Napoli - Chelsea	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
25.01.26	Juventus - Napoli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWWLL
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
09.02.26	Roma - Cagliari	2:0 ✺
02.02.26	Udinese - Roma	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Panathinaikos - Roma	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
25.01.26	Roma - Milan	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Roma - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.11.25	Roma - Napoli	0:1
02.02.25	Roma - Napoli	1:1
24.11.24	Napoli - Roma	1:0
28.04.24	Napoli - Roma	2:2
23.12.23	Roma - Napoli	2:0
29.01.23	Napoli - Roma	2:1
23.10.22	Roma - Napoli	0:1

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