Match Info

Date: 5 November 2020, Thursday


	Real Sociedad		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.7	6.5
	1.45	4.75	6.5
	1.49	4.9	6.75
	1.48	4.5	6
	1.5	4.69	6.39
	1.44	4.4	7
	1.51	4.85	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.6)	4.68 ↑ (4.17)	6.65 ↑ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad
65.1%

Draw
20.5%

AZ Alkmaar
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

22.9%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

13.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Sociedad's performance.

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-29.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Sociedad that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	6.9%	15.3%

Real Sociedad - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 72 users predict this event. Real Sociedad will win (votes: 56 - 77.8%). AZ will win (votes: 11 - 15.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 6.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Sociedad: 68.2% – 87.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

No spectators.

Real Sociedad has a good chance of round of 32 (69%), has a chance of round of 16 (47%), has a chance of qtrs (29%), has a chance of semis (17%), has a small chance of final (10%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

AZ has a chance of round of 32 (50%), has a chance of round of 16 (19%), has a small chance of qtrs (6%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Recent matches Real Sociedad is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

AZ is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

AZ could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Real Sociedad have a series of home games.

In this match Real Sociedad is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad
Honduras Liga Nacional
01.11.20	Real Sociedad - Vida	1:6 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.20	Celta de Vigo - Real Sociedad	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.10.20	Real Sociedad - Napoli	0:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
28.10.20	Real Sociedad - Motagua	1:5 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.10.20	Real Sociedad - Huesca	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLLW
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
01.11.20	AZ Alkmaar - Waalwijk	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.10.20	AZ Alkmaar - Rijeka	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
25.10.20	ADO Den Haag - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.10.20	Napoli - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.10.20	AZ Alkmaar - VVV-Venlo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.5 WWTWT

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