Match Info

SWITZERLAND: Swiss Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion Brügglifeld (Aarau)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Aarau		Luzern

	1	X	2
	5	3.9	1.6
	4.75	4	1.62
	4.73	4.01	1.64
	4.87	3.98	1.64	Watch
	4.8	4	1.53
	4.83	4.15	1.62	Watch
	4.75	4	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.82 ↑ (4.47)	4.01 ↑ (3.9)	1.61 (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aarau
19.2%

Draw
23.2%

Luzern
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

23.3%

56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

23%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aarau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Luzern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Aarau - Luzern Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hubel M. (G) 29. Dickenmann M. 15. Muller S. 5. Acquah D. 27. Obexer L. 17. Koide H. 8. Jackle O. (C) 6. Aliu I. 23. Gjorgjev N. 11. Avdyli M. 9. Toure Y.	1. Loretz P. (G) 20. Dorn P. (C) 3. Lofgren J. 5. Knezevic S. 14. Ciganiks A. 24. Owusu T. 11. Rrudhani D. 18. Beloko N. 16. Kadak J. 17. Klidje T. 27. Villiger L.
Substitutes
25. Derbaci D. 24. Ernest E. 10. Fazliu V. 49. Gebreyesus E. 30. Hirzel A. (G) 21. Jakob N. 31. Odutayo C. 19. Schwegler S. 2. Thaler M.	9. Grbic A. 2. Ottiger S. 7. Spadanuda K. 8. Stankovic A. 22. Ulrich D. 90. Vasic V. (G) 29. Winkler L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Rrudhani D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Avdyli M. 🟨,
59', Avdyli M. ↓, Fazliu V. ↑,
60', Obexer L. 🟨,
68', Kadak J. ↓, Spadanuda K. ↑,
68', Villiger L. ↓, Grbic A. ↑,
68', Owusu T. ↓, Stankovic A. ↑,
70', Rrudhani D. 🟨,
82', 1 - 0, Toure Y. ⚽,
85', Toure Y. ↓, Ernest E. ↑,
90+5', Hubel M. 🟨,
90+6', Obexer L. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aarau won 0.

Recent matches Aarau is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Luzern is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Aarau could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Luzern have a series of guest games.

In this match Luzern is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Aarau won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 20-50.

Including matches at home between the teams Aarau won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 14-24.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aarau
Club Friendly
05.09.24	Grasshoppers - Aarau	1:2 ✺
Swiss Challenge League
31.08.24	Aarau - Bellinzona	1:2 ✺
24.08.24	Aarau - Étoile Carouge	1:0 ✺
09.08.24	Lausanne Ouchy - Aarau	1:1 ✺
03.08.24	Aarau - Neuchâtel Xamax	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLWTL
- FC Luzern
Club Friendly
06.09.24	Vaduz - Luzern	1:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.09.24	Zürich - Luzern	1:1 ✺
24.08.24	Luzern - Winterthur	3:0 ✺
Swiss Cup
17.08.24	Mendrisio-Stabio - Luzern	1:4 ✺
Swiss Super League
11.08.24	Lugano - Luzern	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.06.23	Luzern - Aarau	2:1
23.09.22	Luzern - Aarau	6:0
Swiss Cup
04.05.21	Aarau - Luzern	1:2
Club Friendly
03.07.19	Luzern - Aarau	3:0
05.10.17	Luzern - Aarau	5:0
Swiss Cup
01.03.17	Aarau - Luzern	3:5
12.12.15	Aarau - Luzern	3:4

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