Match Info

League Two - Round 23

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: The Wham Stadium (Accrington)

Referee: Brown D. (Eng)


	Accrington Stanley		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	5
	1.68	3.7	4.95
	1.67	3.73	4.91	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4.75
	1.73	3.55	4.68	Watch
	1.66	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.95)	3.64 ↑ (3.3)	4.88 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Accrington Stanley
55.4%

Draw
25.5%

Harrogate Town
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

27.7%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

26.4%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Accrington Stanley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Accrington Stanley's performance.

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Harrogate Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Accrington Stanley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Harrogate Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Accrington Stanley - Harrogate Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Accrington (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Accrington (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Accrington Stanley will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Accrington Stanley will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Accrington (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Wright O. (G) 2. Love D. 17. Matthews D. 14. Ward B. 38. O'Brien C. 4. Grant C. 11. Sinclair I. 30. Heath I. 7. Whalley S. (C) 10. Henderson A. 18. Caton C.	31. Belshaw J. (G) 6. Burrell W. (C) 15. O'Connor A. 23. Jameson K. 2. Asare Z. 8. Morris B. 4. Evans J. 3. Slater J. 14. McAleny C. 22. Smith R. 25. Cursons T.
Substitutes
20. Brown C. 28. Conneely S. 1. Kelly M. (G) 22. Martin D. 3. Sass F. 39. Woods J.	29. Barnes L. 10. Bennett M. 24. Cass L. 44. Falkingham J. 27. Fox B. 9. McCoulsky S. 1. Oxley M. (G)
Coaches
Doolan J.	Weaver S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Grant C. ↓, Conneely S. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 0, Whalley S. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Slater J. 🟥,
64', Cursons T. ↓, Bennett M. ↑,
64', McAleny C. ↓, McCoulsky S. ↑,
73', Caton C. ↓, Woods J. ↑,
78', Asare Z. ↓, Cass L. ↑,
90+1', Conneely S. ↓, Sass F. ↑,
90+5', Love D. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Accrington won 2.

Recent performances by Accrington have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Harrogate has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Accrington is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Accrington: Hall C. (Inactive) Mooney K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Harrogate: Bennett M. (Inactive) Cass L. (Ankle Injury) Duke-McKenna S. (Injury) Faulkner B. (Inactive) Gibson L. (Injury) Hill T. (Injury) Taylor E. (Inactive) Thomson G. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Accrington: Bauress J. (Inactive) Coyle L. (Injury) Madden P. (Inactive) Walton T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Harrogate: Muldoon J. (Inactive) Sutton L. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Accrington won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 2.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Accrington won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Harrogate Town - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 25.4%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
26.12.25	Accrington Stanley - Barrow	2:1 ✺
19.12.25	Cambridge United - Accrington Stanley	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Accrington Stanley - Bromley	0:1 ✺
09.12.25	Harrogate Town - Accrington Stanley	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Accrington Stanley - Mansfield Town	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWL
- Harrogate Town
English League Two
26.12.25	Salford City - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Harrogate Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:4 ✺
13.12.25	Cheltenham Town - Harrogate Town	1:1 ✺
09.12.25	Harrogate Town - Accrington Stanley	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Harrogate Town - Blackpool	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.12.25	Harrogate Town - Accrington Stanley	0:2
01.03.25	Harrogate Town - Accrington Stanley	2:1
17.08.24	Accrington Stanley - Harrogate Town	3:3
26.12.23	Harrogate Town - Accrington Stanley	2:1
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Harrogate Town - Accrington Stanley	3:5
English League Two
19.08.23	Accrington Stanley - Harrogate Town	2:1

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