Match Info

A-League Women - Round 22

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Coopers Stadium (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 4
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Adelaide United		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.4	3.7	1.82
	3.74	4.02	1.93
	3.56	4.08	1.86	Watch
	3.5	3.3	1.85
	3.61	3.6	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (2.95)	3.74 ↑ (3.45)	1.86 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide United
25.8%

Draw
24.6%

Wellington Phoenix
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

26.3%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

25.8%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Wellington Phoenix's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Wellington Phoenix, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jenkins C. (G) 17. Tolland Z. 13. Tonkin E. 3. McNamara M. 2. Hodgson E. 16. Holmes D. 25. Gooch L. 6. Taranto M. 11. Hodgson I. (C) 15. Taranto A. 10. Dawber C.	1. Esson V. (G) 23. Nunn B. 5. Walker E. 4. Barry M. (C) 16. Van der Meer M. 11. Elliott M. 24. Vlok P. 32. Pijnenburg E. 7. Jale G. 31. Woods M. 14. Leon L.
Substitutes
19. Bowler K. 8. Condon E. 18. Millar A. (G) 5. Morgan S. 14. Nicholas M. 12. Rossi C.	30. Anthony M. 27. Benson Z. 15. Brazendale D. 22. Feinberg-Danieli A. (G) 8. Fraser M. 3. Jaber T.
Coaches
Tsiounis T.	Priestman B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', Holmes D. ↓, Morgan S. ↑,
30', 0 - 1, Van der Meer M. ⚽, Nunn B. (A),
34', 0 - 2, Nunn B. ⚽, Elliott M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Pijnenburg E. ↓, Brazendale D. ↑,
59', Vlok P. ↓, Fraser M. ↑,
59', Leon L. ↓, Anthony M. ↑,
71', Hodgson I. ↓, Bowler K. ↑,
77', Van der Meer M. ↓, Jaber T. ↑,
83', Gooch L. ↓, Condon E. ↑,
83', Taranto M. ↓, Nicholas M. ↑,
90+1', Elliott M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide United won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Adelaide United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Wellington might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Adelaide United won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide United won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide United Women
Australian A-League Women
27.03.26	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
21.03.26	Canberra United - Adelaide United	3:2 ✺
18.03.26	Melbourne City - Adelaide United	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Adelaide United - Perth Glory	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Brisbane Roar - Adelaide United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLTWW
- Wellington Phoenix Women
Australian A-League Women
28.03.26	Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:1 ✺
25.03.26	Central Coast Mariners - Wellington Phoenix	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Sydney FC - Wellington Phoenix	1:3 ✺
14.03.26	Wellington Phoenix - Brisbane Roar	3:0 ✺
20.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
24.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	3:1
01.03.25	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	1:3
12.01.25	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
22.11.24	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	0:1
20.03.24	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	4:0
16.12.23	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
28.03.23	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:3

Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide