Match Info

A-League Women - Round 18

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: The Home of the Matildas (Melbourne)

Referee: Ryan M. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5, TNT Sports 8, TNT Sports Extra
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	3.35	2.48	Watch
	2.54	3.67	2.6
	2.5	3.67	2.56	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.45
	2.4	3.48	2.45	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.55)	3.49 ↓ (3.52)	2.5 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
37.2%

Draw
26.2%

Wellington Phoenix
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

25.7%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

25.9%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Wellington Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Melbourne Victory (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Melbourne Victory (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Melbourne Victory (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Newbon C. (G) 24. Pickett L. 3. Bunge C. 18. Morrison K. (C) 4. Blissett C. 9. Furphy H. 10. Pollicina R. 6. Ray T. 23. Lowe R. 5. Sakalis S. 16. White K.	1. Esson V. (G) 5. Walker E. (C) 4. Barry M. 16. Van der Meer M. 11. Elliott M. 23. Nunn B. 32. Pijnenburg E. 24. Vlok P. 7. Jale G. 31. Woods M. 14. Leon L.
Substitutes
27. Curtis R. 66. Jancevski A. 81. Maher G. 7. O'Grady E. 8. Saveska S. 30. Woodward P. (G)	30. Anthony M. 27. Benson Z. 15. Brazendale D. 22. Feinberg-Danieli A. (G) 3. Jaber T. 20. Main E.
Coaches
Hopkins J.	Priestman B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 1 - 0, Pollicina R. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Pijnenburg E. ↓, Anthony M. ↑,
81', Sakalis S. ↓, Jancevski A. ↑,
82', Leon L. ↓, Benson Z. ↑,
82', Pickett L. ↓, Curtis R. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Woods M. ⚽, Vlok P. (A),
89', Vlok P. ↓, Brazendale D. ↑,
90+1', Furphy H. ↓, O'Grady E. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 1.

Melbourne Victory has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Wellington is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:10. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory Women
Australian A-League Women
15.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Canberra United - Melbourne Victory	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Sydney FC	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWLTL
- Wellington Phoenix Women
Australian A-League Women
14.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Central Coast Mariners	1:2 ✺
05.02.26	Wellington Phoenix - Perth Glory	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:5 ✺
24.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Canberra United - Wellington Phoenix	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
22.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	1:0
07.02.25	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	1:1
13.12.24	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	1:1
02.03.24	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	5:3
09.12.23	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:2
31.03.23	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne Victory	2:2
04.12.22	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	1:0

Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide