Match Info

Cymru South - Round 11

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Afan Lido		Pure Swansea

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.25	1.52
	3.78	4.75	1.58
	4.65	4.63	1.57	Watch
	3.7	4.65	1.55
	4.51	4.45	1.51
	4.3	4.4	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.19 ↑ (3.79)	4.52 ↑ (3.9)	1.55 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Afan Lido
21.6%

Draw
20%

Pure Swansea
58.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.5%

23.8%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

23.3%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Afan Lido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Pure Swansea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pure Swansea's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afan Lido than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pure Swansea than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pure Swansea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Afan Lido - Pure Swansea Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 3)
12', 1 - 0, Giardelli A. ⚽,
22', 2 - 0, Giardelli A. ⚽,
27', 2 - 1, Gibbings B. ⚽,
31', 3 - 1, Roberts B. ⚽,
35', 4 - 1, Giardelli A. ⚽,
45+1', 4 - 2, Ingram D. ⚽,
45+3', 4 - 3, Copp K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 4 - 4, Coughlin C. ⚽,
72', 4 - 5, Copp K. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', 5 - 5, Cronin S. ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 9th and 1st in the Promotion - Cymru Premier).

Afan Lido has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Pure Swansea shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this matchup, Pure Swansea is considered the favorite to take the win.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30:11	19	21
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	21:22	-1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Afan Lido - the odds 3.79 are the expected chance of winning is 24.53%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Afan Lido
Welsh Cymru South
02.10.26	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	2:0 ✺
25.09.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Afan Lido - Ynyshir Albions	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LTWLT
- Pure Swansea FC
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.26	Pure Swansea - Caerphilly Athletic	3:1 ✺
25.09.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pure Swansea	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Pure Swansea - Pontardawe Town	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Pure Swansea - Pontypridd United	4:4 ✺
21.08.26	Caerau Ely - Pure Swansea	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTWTW

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