Match Info

Cymru South - Round 10

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Caerau Ely		Afan Lido

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.50	5.50
	1.40	4.98	5.69
	1.42	4.87	6.2	Watch
	1.38	4.90	5.60
	1.42	4.89	6.25
	1.39	4.60	5.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.58)	4.79 ↑ (4.24)	5.81 ↑ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
65.2%

Draw
19%

Afan Lido
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

21.8%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

21%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Caerau Ely's performance.

Afan Lido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afan Lido than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Caerau Ely - Afan Lido Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, Harling L. ⚽,
67', 2 - 0, Maher Z. ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 5th and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 3.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

The betting markets point to Caerau as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Caerau has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:12 (averaging 2.4:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Caerau against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 14:3 goals (averaging 3.5:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13:17	-4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
26.09.26	Cardiff Draconians - Caerau Ely	1:3 ✺
11.09.26	Caerau Ely - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Caerau Ely - Treowen Stars	3:2 ✺
28.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Caerau Ely - Pure Swansea	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLL
- Afan Lido
Welsh Cymru South
25.09.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Afan Lido - Ynyshir Albions	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Afan Lido	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
07.03.26	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	4:1
31.10.25	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	3:2
22.11.24	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	3:0
07.09.24	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	2:2
01.04.24	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	3:2
Welsh FA Cup
17.10.23	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	4:0
Welsh Cymru South
08.08.23	Afan Lido - Caerau Ely	3:1

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