Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 33

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Michel Moretti Stadium (Ajaccio)

Referee: Thual O. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA 9, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Ajaccio		Lorient

	1	X	2
	6	4	1.53	Watch
	5.75	3.9	1.57
	6	4.1	1.51
	5.95	4.23	1.53
	5.95	4.16	1.52	Watch
	5.8	3.8	1.57
	6.1	4.2	1.54	Watch
	6	4.1	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.94 ↑ (5.93)	4.06 ↑ (4)	1.54 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajaccio
15.8%

Draw
23.1%

Lorient
61.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.6%

23.1%

61.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

22.6%

62.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajaccio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	21.4%	64.3%

Ajaccio - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Lorient will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorient: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajaccio (votes: 2 - 40%). Lorient (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Quilichini G. (G) 23. Strata T. 88. Bamba A. 5. Vidal C. 12. Huard M. 43. Kouassi A. 4. Barreto M. (C) 6. Mangani T. 25. Anziani J. 11. Toure B. 9. Santelli B.	1. Leroy B. (G) 24. Kalulu G. 15. Laporte J. 5. Mendy F. 44. Yongwa D. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 17. Makengo J. 6. Abergel L. (C) 21. Ponceau J. 27. Tosin A. 28. Soumano S.
Substitutes
31. Ayessa J. 2. Campanini T. 21. Chegra I. 10. Jacob V. 17. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 27. Kante A. 16. Sollacaro F. (G)	62. Avom A. 9. Bamba M. 7. Diarra S. 22. Kroupi E. J. 38. Mvogo Y. (G) 10. Pagis P. 3. Talbi M.
Coaches
Debes T.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Anziani J. ⚽, Strata T. (A),
42', Mendy F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tosin A. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,
63', Ponceau J. ↓, Pagis P. ↑,
63', Makengo J. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
63', Soumano S. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
66', Huard M. ↓, Ayessa J. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Toure B. ⚽, Kouassi A. (A),
70', Mvuka Mugisha J. ↓, Diarra S. ↑,
71', Toure B. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
72', Mangani T. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,
80', Kalulu G. 🟨,
84', 2 - 1, Pagis P. ⚽, Bamba M. (A),
89', Ayessa J. 🟨,
90+3', Bamba M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Lorient is Qualified for Ligue 1

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajaccio won 1.

In recent matches, Ajaccio has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lorient is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Lorient is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ajaccio: Junior Pereira da Silva E. (Injury) Soumano M. (Injury) Touzghar Y. (Arm Injury) Youssouf M. (Injury)

There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Igor Silva (Yellow Cards) Katseris P. (Hip Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ajaccio won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:22. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajaccio won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
25.04.25	Annecy - Ajaccio	2:0 ✺
18.04.25	Ajaccio - Pau	1:1 ✺
11.04.25	Troyes - Ajaccio	0:0 ✺
04.04.25	Ajaccio - Amiens	2:1 ✺
28.03.25	Martigues - Ajaccio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTTWL
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 2
26.04.25	Lorient - Caen	4:0 ✺
21.04.25	Annecy - Lorient	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Guingamp - Lorient	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Lorient - Pau	5:0 ✺
29.03.25	Grenoble - Lorient	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
27.09.24	Lorient - Ajaccio	3:0
French Ligue 1
19.02.23	Lorient - Ajaccio	3:0
04.09.22	Ajaccio - Lorient	0:1
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Lorient - Ajaccio	1:1
French Ligue 2
07.03.20	Ajaccio - Lorient	1:0
04.10.19	Lorient - Ajaccio	0:0
01.02.19	Lorient - Ajaccio	1:0

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