Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 30

Date: 11 April 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes)

Referee: Rosier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free


	Troyes		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4.5
	1.86	3.2	4.5
	1.8	3.32	4.82	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4.33
	1.85	3.36	4.68	Watch
	1.86	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.91)	3.23 ↑ (3.21)	4.58 ↑ (4.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
50.5%

Draw
29%

Ajaccio
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

29.1%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

29.9%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Troyes - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Troyes will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Ajaccio will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Troyes: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Troyes (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Troyes (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Troyes (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Lemaitre N. (G) 17. Mendes H. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 6. Monfray A. (C) 14. Boura I. 42. Kante A. 21. Irie C. 10. M'Changama Y. 24. Adeline M. 11. Said R. 9. El Idrissy M.	16. Sollacaro F. (G) 23. Strata T. 88. Bamba A. 5. Vidal C. (C) 12. Huard M. 43. Kouassi A. 8. Puch Herrantz M. 17. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 25. Anziani J. 27. Kante A. 9. Santelli B.
Substitutes
25. Ba P. I. 1. Boucher Z. (G) 7. Chavalerin X. 12. de Preville N. 32. Detourbet M. 8. Diop M. 23. Gozzi P.	31. Ayessa J. 21. Chegra I. 10. Jacob V. 6. Mangani T. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 11. Toure B. 20. Youssouf M.
Coaches
Dumont S.	Debes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Irie C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Huard M. 🟨,
58', Adeline M. ↓, Diop M. ↑,
71', El Idrissy M. ↓, de Preville N. ↑,
80', Kante A. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
87', M'Changama Y. ↓, Detourbet M. ↑,
90+3', Puch Herrantz M. 🟨,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 13 and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Troyes won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Troyes is a favorite.

There will not play in Troyes: Hamdi M. (Injury) Ripart R. (Knee Injury) Tahrat M. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Ajaccio: Barreto M. (Yellow Cards) Soumano M. (Injury) Touzghar Y. (Arm Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Troyes won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 24:20 (average 1.4:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Troyes won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:11 (average 1.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 2
05.04.25	Troyes - Red Star	2:2 ✺
28.03.25	Metz - Troyes	2:1 ✺
14.03.25	Troyes - Guingamp	0:1 ✺
07.03.25	Pau - Troyes	0:2 ✺
28.02.25	Troyes - Bastia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLLWW
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
04.04.25	Ajaccio - Amiens	2:1 ✺
28.03.25	Martigues - Ajaccio	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Ajaccio - Red Star	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Grenoble - Ajaccio	2:2 ✺
03.03.25	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
30.08.24	Ajaccio - Troyes	2:1
13.01.24	Troyes - Ajaccio	3:1
11.11.23	Ajaccio - Troyes	1:0
French Ligue 1
26.02.23	Ajaccio - Troyes	2:1
16.10.22	Troyes - Ajaccio	1:1
French Ligue 2
27.02.21	Troyes - Ajaccio	1:0
31.10.20	Ajaccio - Troyes	0:4

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