The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ajaccio 27.8%
Draw 31.1%
Montpellier 41.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.1%
29.4%
33.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.3%
29.6%
33.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajaccio's form might have worsened.
Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+9.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajaccio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-7.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
15.2%
27.3%
57.6%
Ajaccio - Montpellier Predictions
Users Predictions:
33 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 5 - 15.2%). Montpellier will win (votes: 19 - 57.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 27.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 40.7% – 74.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 13).
Ajaccio has the most likely position - 18 (26.07%), has project points - 33, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (70%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.
Montpellier has the most likely position - 14 (24.18%), has project points - 43, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has quality52, importance33, match rating42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 1.
Ajaccio is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Montpellier is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Ajaccio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Montpellier will have a small advantage in this match.
There will not play in Ajaccio: Alphonse M.
(Illness)
Cimignani Y.
(Injury)
Hamouma R.
(Injury)
Kone Y.
(Ankle Injury)
Mangani T.
(Injury)
Touzghar Y.
(Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Montpellier: Bertaud D.
(Knee Injury)
Esteve M.
(Injury)
Leroy L.
(Muscle Injury)
Makouana B.
(Injury)
Sainte-Luce T.
(Knee Injury)
Last 7 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-10.
Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.
France
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