Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 20

Date: 31 January 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
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France	DAZN 1, DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
India	GXR World
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV App
Montenegro	Arena Premium 3
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Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
World	Disney+


	Montpellier		Lens

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.7	1.85	Watch
	4.1	3.6	1.85
	4.1	3.7	1.85	Watch
	4.38	3.77	1.86
	4.19	3.76	1.83	Watch
	4.2	3.5	1.85
	4.21	3.74	1.9	Watch
	4.1	3.7	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.2 ↑ (4.1)	3.68 ↓ (3.88)	1.86 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
22.7%

Draw
25.9%

Lens
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

24.5%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

25.3%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	13.3%	66.7%

Montpellier - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 5 - 17.2%). Lens will win (votes: 20 - 69%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lens: 52.2% – 85.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (C) 29. Tchato E. 4. Kouyate K. 5. Sagnan M. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 27. Omeragic B. 22. Fayad K. 13. Chotard J. 11. Savanier T. 9. Tamari M. 7. Delort A.	30. Ryan M. (G) 29. Frankowski P. 24. Gradit J. (C) 20. Sarr M. 14. Medina F. 3. Machado D. 28. Thomasson A. 23. El Aynaoui N. 18. Diouf A. 8. Nzola M. 19. Koyalipou G.
Substitutes
16. Bertaud D. (G) 44. Chennahi T. 70. Coulibaly T. 10. Khazri W. 14. Maamma O. 21. Mincarelli L. 47. Mouanga Y. 19. Nzingoula R. 18. Pays N.	25. Agbonifo J. 98. Antonio K. 50. Delplace A. (G) 11. Fulgini A. 35. Juma Bah A. 15. Ojediran H. 34. Pouilly T. 22. Said W. 21. Zaroury A.
Coaches
Gasset J.	Still W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Nzola M. ⚽, Thomasson A. (A),
18', Sainte-Luce T. 🟨,
26', Gasset J. 🟥,
26', Still W. 🟥,
45+6', Machado D. 🟨,
45+7', Medina F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Kouyate K. 🟨,
60', Koyalipou G. ↓, Agbonifo J. ↑,
61', 0 - 2, Agbonifo J. ⚽, Thomasson A. (A),
64', Delort A. ↓, Khazri W. ↑,
64', Kouyate K. ↓, Mouanga Y. ↑,
64', Sainte-Luce T. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
70', Fayad K. ↓, Nzingoula R. ↑,
78', Sagnan M. 🟨,
79', Diouf A. ↓, Fulgini A. ↑,
81', Tchato E. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
90+1', Chotard J. 🟨,
90+3', Thomasson A. ↓, Ojediran H. ↑,
90+4', Nzola M. ↓, Said W. ↑,
90+4', Gradit J. ↓, Juma Bah A. ↑,
90+6', Ojediran H. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Lens have a series of home games.

In this match Lens is a favorite.

There will not play in Montpellier: Ferri J. (Red Card) Jullien C. (Knee Injury) Maksimovic N. (Thigh Injury) Mincarelli L. (Injury)

There will not play in Lens: Jhoanner Chavez (Ankle Injury) Labeau Lascary R. (Knee Injury) Petric D. (Back Injury) Satriano M. (Knee Injury) Sotoca F. (Calf Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:17 (average 1.1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
26.01.25	Toulouse - Montpellier	1:2 ✺
17.01.25	Montpellier - Monaco	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Montpellier - Angers	1:3 ✺
04.01.25	Lyon - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Le Puy - Montpellier	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WWLLL
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
26.01.25	Lens - Angers	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Lens - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
12.01.25	Le Havre - Lens	1:2 ✺
05.01.25	Lens - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Lens - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
08.12.24	Lens - Montpellier	2:0
19.05.24	Lens - Montpellier	2:2
08.12.23	Montpellier - Lens	0:0
25.02.23	Montpellier - Lens	1:1
Club Friendly
10.12.22	Montpellier - Lens	1:2
French Ligue 1
15.10.22	Lens - Montpellier	1:0
20.04.22	Lens - Montpellier	2:0

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