Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Koblandy Batyr Stadium (Aktobe)

Referee: Gorda D. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Aktobe		Astana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	3.00	2.50
	2.60	3.00	2.40	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.51
	2.69	3.09	2.55	Watch
	2.62	2.90	2.50
	2.70	3.22	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (2.82)	3.09 ↓ (3.47)	2.51 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
34.3%

Draw
29.5%

Astana
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

26.5%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

25.5%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Astana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Aktobe - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Aktobe will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Zarutskiy A. (G) 31. Tanzharikov A. 23. Erlanov T. 18. Ordets I. (C) 27. Dosmagambetov T. 20. Zhukov G. 6. Atanasov J. 12. Topalov D. 14. Pibe 17. Nani 19. Laturnus V.	93. Condric J. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 3. Kalaica B. 6. Kasym A. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 7. Karaman D. 10. Tomasov M. 9. Islamkhan B. 47. Abrayev M. 81. Karimov R.
Substitutes
5. Kairov B. 48. Kenzhegulov A. 29. Kikbaev M. 4. Kusyapov T. 3. Mitrovic D. 22. Seydakhmet E. 11. Shushenachev A. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 10. Zeljkovic A.	20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 72. Basmanov S. 57. Kaltanov A. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 5. Kazukolovas K. 21. Merkel A. 74. Seysen M. (G) 77. Shomko D. 91. Token A.
Coaches
Tarkovic S.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Nani 🟨,
20', Beysebekov A. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Nani ⚽, Pibe (A),
31', Karimov R. 🟨,
35', Kasym A. ↓, Kazukolovas K. ↑,
44', Atanasov J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Laturnus V. ↓, Shushenachev A. ↑,
50', Bartolec K. 🟨,
55', 2 - 0, Pibe ⚽,
69', Karaman D. ↓, Merkel A. ↑,
69', Islamkhan B. ↓, Basmanov S. ↑,
69', Abrayev M. ↓, Ahanonu N. ↑,
75', Shushenachev A. 🟨,
76', Topalov D. ↓, Zaria G. ↑,
76', Nani ↓, Zeljkovic A. ↑,
86', Pibe ↓, Kenzhegulov A. ↑,
90', Dosmagambetov T. ↓, Mitrovic D. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 5)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 1.

Recent performances by Aktobe have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Astana is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Aktobe has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 26:45. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.3:1.7).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
5	Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38:31	7	42

Last Results with these Odds

Aktobe - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 32.62%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Astana - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.88%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Premier League
14.06.26	Aktobe - Altai Semey	2:0 ✺
28.05.26	Okzhetpes - Aktobe	2:2 ✺
23.05.26	Aktobe - Kyzylzhar	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Aktobe - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Aktobe - Altai Semey	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTTTL
- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0 ✺
27.05.26	Altai Semey - Astana	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Astana - Ulytau	3:0 ✺
16.05.26	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Astana - Kyzylzhar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
19.10.25	Astana - Aktobe	5:3
22.06.25	Aktobe - Astana	0:1
27.10.24	Astana - Aktobe	2:0
04.05.24	Aktobe - Astana	1:1
30.09.23	Aktobe - Astana	2:0
14.03.23	Astana - Aktobe	1:4
26.06.22	Aktobe - Astana	4:1

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