Match Info

Premier League - Round 13

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Sultangaliev R. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport, Sport+


	Astana		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.44	4.00	5.75
	1.44	3.85	5.40	Watch
	1.48	4.15	7.01
	1.48	4.25	5.68	Watch
	1.44	3.60	6.50
	1.54	3.95	5.98	Watch
	1.45	4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.49)	3.97 ↓ (4.32)	5.97 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
61.9%

Draw
22.9%

Ertis Pavlodar
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

21.3%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

20.4%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Astana - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Astana will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Condric J. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 6. Kasym A. 3. Kalaica B. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 7. Karaman D. 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 10. Tomasov M. 9. Islamkhan B. 47. Abrayev M. 81. Karimov R.	16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 56. Yudenkov R. 33. Ibrahim F. 22. Stephen G. 8. Zharynbetov S. (C) 6. Shimamura Y. 98. Sedko P. 24. Khalmatov M. 97. Poe J. 18. Shvyrev V.
Substitutes
89. Akhmetov A. 4. Anuarov S. 72. Basmanov S. 57. Kaltanov A. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 5. Kazukolovas K. 74. Seysen M. (G) 77. Shomko D. 91. Token A. 52. Tokenov T.	10. Agimanov T. 21. Buranchiev A. 12. Karimov R. 4. Khadarkevich R. 15. Nyrkov D. 19. Popov A. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 5. Toleuov B.
Coaches
Babayan G.	Zhumaskaliyev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Botnar V. (Own goal),
44', 2 - 0, Tomasov M. ⚽, Karimov R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sedko P. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
53', Zharynbetov S. 🟨,
69', Zharynbetov S. ↓, Buranchiev A. ↑,
70', Islamkhan B. ↓, Basmanov S. ↑,
76', Shvyrev V. ↓, Agimanov T. ↑,
76', Abrayev M. ↓, Kazukolovas K. ↑,
76', Karimov R. ↓, Kaltanov A. ↑,
85', Bartolec K. ↓, Shomko D. ↑,
85', Khalmatov M. ↓, Toleuov B. ↑,
86', Poe J. ↓, Nyrkov D. ↑,
90+2', Agimanov T. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 3.

Astana has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ertis's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Astana is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Astana won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 47:20. (average 2.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 28:13. (average 2.3:1.1).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
27.05.26	Altai Semey - Astana	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Astana - Ulytau	3:0 ✺
16.05.26	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Astana - Kyzylzhar	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TWLWL
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
27.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
16.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
09.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
10.11.19	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	0:2
15.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	0:4
05.05.19	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	0:1
11.11.18	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	4:0
17.06.18	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	3:0
07.04.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	1:6
15.10.17	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1

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