Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 5

Date: 25 November 2024, Monday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Arezo TV
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports Asian Cup 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Sport 1+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	Astro Arena 2, Astro Go
Mexico	ESPN
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN 4
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Portugal	Canal 11
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Al-Gharafa		Al-Nassr Riyadh

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6	4.6	1.46
	6	4.75	1.45	Watch
	6.47	4.8	1.44
	6.26	4.65	1.45	Watch
	5.8	4.6	1.4
	6.3	4.7	1.47	Watch
	6	4.75	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.12 ↓ (7.46)	4.69 ↓ (4.8)	1.45 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
15.3%

Draw
19.9%

Al-Nassr Riyadh
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.6%

19.6%

67.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.7%

18%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Gharafa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Al-Nassr Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Al Gharafa - Al Nassr Riyadh Predictions

Users Predictions: Al-Nassr Riyadh will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Rico S. (G) 2. Yousif A. 42. Sano S. 32. Nani M. 99. Hamed J. 28. Kechrida W. 29. Diaz F. 7. Coman F. 31. Sassi F. (C) 8. Brahimi Y. 9. Joselu	24. Bento (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. 3. Simakan M. 4. Al Fatil M. 12. Boushal N. 11. Brozovic M. 17. Al Khaibari A. 20. Angelo 25. Otavio 10. Mane S. 7. Ronaldo C. (C)
Substitutes
34. Al Oui A. 26. Boussafi R. 12. Ismaeil H. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 40. Lecomte-Addani A. (G) 3. Muntari M. 18. N'Diaye K. (G) 19. Saaed Ahmed Y. 14. Sudarmanto A. 11. Surag A. 6. Traore D.	44. Al Aqidi N. (G) 19. Al Hassan A. 6. Ali M. 83. Al Najdi S. 36. Al Najjar R. (G) 8. Al Sulaiheem A. 29. Ghareeb A. 60. Haqawi S. 78. Lajami A. 16. Maran M. 50. Qasheesh M. 80. Wesley
Coaches
Martins P.	Pioli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', 0 - 1, Ronaldo C. ⚽, Al Ghannam S. (A),
58', 0 - 2, Angelo ⚽, Otavio (A),
61', Sano S. 🟨,
64', 0 - 3, Ronaldo C. ⚽, Angelo (A),
66', Hamed J. ↓, Boussafi R. ↑,
74', Ronaldo C. ↓, Wesley ↑,
74', Simakan M. ↓, Lajami A. ↑,
74', Angelo ↓, Ghareeb A. ↑,
75', 1 - 3, Joselu ⚽,
83', Yousif A. ↓, Muntari M. ↑,
84', Sano S. 🟨,
88', Brahimi Y. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
89', Al Ghannam S. ↓, Al Najdi S. ↑,
90+5', Otavio ↓, Ali M. ↑,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Al-Gharafa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Al-Nassr have a series of home games.

In this match Al-Nassr is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
22.11.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	3:1 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
11.11.24	Al-Khor - Al-Gharafa	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
04.11.24	Persepolis - Al-Gharafa	1:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
31.10.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Arabi Doha	3:1 ✺
27.10.24	Al Duhail - Al-Gharafa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WLTWT
- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
22.11.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Qadisiya	1:2 ✺
08.11.24	Al-Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
05.11.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Ain	5:1 ✺
Saudi Professional League
01.11.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Hilal	1:1 ✺
Saudi King Cup
29.10.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Taawoun	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWTL

Upcoming Matches