Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 4

Date: 4 November 2024, Monday

Location: Azadi Stadium (Tehran)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Go, Sooka
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Persepolis		Al-Gharafa

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.4
	2.1	3.3	3.5
	2.09	3.45	3.59
	2.1	3.25	3.55	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.25
	2.13	3.44	3.42	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.73)	3.33 ↓ (3.63)	3.46 ↓ (4.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Persepolis
44.8%

Draw
28.1%

Al-Gharafa
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

25.8%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

24.9%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Persepolis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Persepolis's form might have worsened.

Al-Gharafa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Gharafa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Persepolis than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Persepolis, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Gharafa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.4%	9.5%	38.1%

Persepolis - Al Gharafa Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Persepolis will win (votes: 10 - 50%). Al-Gharafa will win (votes: 8 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Persepolis: 28.1% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guendouz A. (G) 3. Faraji F. 30. Gvelesiani G. 8. Pouraliganji M. 4. Mohammadi M. 19. Amiri V. 7. Rafiei S. 23. Sarlak M. 2. Alishah O. (C) 70. Urunov O. 9. Alipour A.	15. Rico S. (G) 2. Yousif A. 42. Sano S. 32. Nani M. 28. Kechrida W. 29. Diaz F. 31. Sassi F. (C) 24. Gunnarsson A. 8. Brahimi Y. 7. Coman F. 9. Joselu
Substitutes
11. Ahmadzadeh F. 10. Alkasir I. 20. El Amloud A. 15. Hoboobati S. 31. Joao L. 6. Kanaani H. 77. Khodabandelou M. 27. Mehri S. 22. Rafiei A. (G) 5. Rigi M. 21. Sadeghi S. 76. Sahraei S.	80. Al Ganehi A. 34. Al Oui A. 26. Boussafi R. 99. Hamed J. 16. Houssam Y. 40. Lecomte-Addani A. (G) 3. Muntari M. 18. N'Diaye K. (G) 14. Sudarmanto A. 17. Surag A. 25. Tamer I. 6. Traore D.
Coaches
Garrido J.	Martins P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Sano S. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Yousif A. ↓, Hamed J. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Faraji F. ⚽, Amiri V. (A),
56', Gunnarsson A. ↓, Al Ganehi A. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Al Ganehi A. ⚽,
60', Sarlak M. ↓, Rigi M. ↑,
63', Traore D. 🟨,
70', Urunov O. ↓, Ahmadzadeh F. ↑,
70', Faraji F. ↓, El Amloud A. ↑,
83', Amiri V. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
83', Alishah O. ↓, Alkasir I. ↑,
87', Coman F. ↓, Muntari M. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 10 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Persepolis will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Persepolis won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:0 (average 0:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Persepolis won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Persepolis FC
Iran Pro League
30.10.24	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Persepolis	1:0 ✺
26.10.24	Persepolis - Shams Azar Qazvin	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.24	Al-Sadd - Persepolis	1:0 ✺
Iran Pro League
05.10.24	Persepolis - Chadormalou Ardakan	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
30.09.24	Persepolis - Pakhtakor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLWT
- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
31.10.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Arabi Doha	3:1 ✺
27.10.24	Al Duhail - Al-Gharafa	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Al-Gharafa - Al Wasl	1:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
18.10.24	Al-Gharafa - Umm-Salal	3:1 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
05.10.24	Umm-Salal - Al-Gharafa	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
17.04.12	Persepolis - Al-Gharafa	N/A

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