Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 32

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Al Taawon Arena (Buraidah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, Startimes World Football, SupeSport ESPN 2
Asia	JACO Middle East, SPOTV Asia
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	on.cc
Hungary	Spiler1 TV
India	Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mexico	FOX One
Mongolia	SPOTV
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
Philippines	SPOTV
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
South-korea	SPOTV
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV
Turkey	S Sport+
Usa	FOX One, FOX Sports 2, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com
Vietnam	SPOTV
World	Onefootball


	Al-Taawoun		Al-Ahli Jeddah

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.25	2
	3.3	3.45	2.05
	3.53	3.57	2.08
	3.4	3.42	2.1	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2
	3.7	3.53	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↓ (3.96)	3.4 ↓ (3.64)	2.06 ↑ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Taawoun
27.4%

Draw
27.3%

Al-Ahli Jeddah
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

25.3%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.8%

24.8%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Taawoun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Al-Ahli Jeddah has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Ahli Jeddah might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Taawoun than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Ahli Jeddah than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Ahli Jeddah could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Al Taawoun - Al Ahli Jeddah Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Ahli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Ahli Jeddah will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mailson (G) 5. Mahzari M. 3. Andrei Girotto 87. Lajami Q. 55. Al Dossari M. 88. Petkov M. 7. Al Kuwaykibi M. 8. Flavio 18. El Mahdioui A. (C) 11. Fulgini A. 10. Martinez Tobinson R. B.	1. Al Sanbi A. (G) 27. Majrashi A. 28. Demiral M. 3. Ibanez 32. Dams M. 10. Millot E. 6. Atangana V. 7. Mahrez R. (C) 47. Abu Al Shamat S. 9. Al Buraikan F. 17. Toney I.
Substitutes
2. Al Alaeli M. 66. Al Hurayji B. 32. Al Mufarrij M. 15. Al Qahtani M. 13. Atiah A. (G) 29. Bahusayn A. 20. Biel 77. Hawsawi A. 74. Rajab S.	62. Abdo A. (G) 49. Abdullah S. 29. Abdulrahman M. 30. Al Johani Z. 14. Al Muwallad E. 46. Hamidou R. 60. Madani Y. 20. Matheus Goncalves 5. Sulaiman M.
Coaches
Chamusca P.	Jaissle M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Toney I. ⚽, Dams M. (A),
33', Millot E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Atangana V. ↓, Al Johani Z. ↑,
50', Al Dossari M. 🟨,
55', 1 - 1, Fulgini A. ⚽, Flavio (A),
58', Abu Al Shamat S. 🟨,
60', Al Johani Z. 🟨,
61', Abu Al Shamat S. ↓, Matheus Goncalves ↑,
61', Majrashi A. ↓, Hamidou R. ↑,
70', Andrei Girotto ↓, Al Mufarrij M. ↑,
78', El Mahdioui A. 🟨,
79', 1 - 2, Ibanez ⚽, Mahrez R. (A),
83', Al Dossari M. ↓, Biel ↑,
89', Flavio ↓, Rajab S. ↑,
90', Mahrez R. ↓, Sulaiman M. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Taawoun won 0.

Al-Taawoun has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Al-Ahli is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Al-Ahli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Al-Ahli is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Taawoun won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 29:39. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Taawoun won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.6:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Al Ahli SC	8	5	0	3	20:10	10	15
16	Al Taawon	7	0	3	4	3:12	-9	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Taawoun FC
Saudi Professional League
03.05.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Taawoun	1:5 ✺
29.04.26	Al-Taawoun - Al-Ittihad Jeddah	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Al-Najma - Al-Taawoun	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Al-Taawoun - Al-Kholood	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Al-Hilal - Al-Taawoun	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WLWLT
- Al-Ahli Jeddah
Saudi Professional League
06.05.26	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al Fateh	3:1 ✺
03.05.26	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al Akhdoud	4:0 ✺
29.04.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
25.04.26	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Machida Zelvia	1:0 ET ✺
20.04.26	Vissel Kobe - Al-Ahli Jeddah	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
14.01.26	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Taawoun	2:1
07.05.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Taawoun	2:0
07.12.24	Al-Taawoun - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:4
09.03.24	Al-Taawoun - Al-Ahli Jeddah	0:1
16.09.23	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Taawoun	3:2
05.02.22	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Taawoun	1:1
12.09.21	Al-Taawoun - Al-Ahli Jeddah	1:1

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