Match Info

Date: 5 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)

Referee: Contreras Q. (Mex)


	Alacranes de Durango		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.45
	2.63	3.15	2.6
	2.65	3.1	2.45
	2.82	3.21	2.64
	2.7	2.9	2.55
	2.63	3.14	2.54	Watch
	2.7	3.15	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.5)	3.11 ↑ (2.9)	2.53 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
34.3%

Draw
29.5%

Atlético Morelia
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

31.1%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

33.4%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Morelia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	30.8%	46.2%

Alacranes de Durango - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Alacranes de Durango will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Morelia: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.09.22	Cancún - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
25.09.22	Alacranes de Durango - Celaya	1:1 ✺
21.09.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	5:0 ✺
14.09.22	Alacranes de Durango - Raya2 Expansión	3:1 ✺
09.09.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Alacranes de Durango	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTLWL
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.09.22	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
24.09.22	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
22.09.22	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	0:0 ✺
18.09.22	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	4:2 ✺
07.09.22	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTTWL

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