Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico-Ciudad Madero) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ramirez Gutierrez E. A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	19:00	AYM Sports


	Jaiba Brava		Alacranes de Durango

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.00
	2.22	3.1	3.05	Watch
	2.27	3.23	3.39
	2.23	3.25	3.26	Watch
	2.19	3.15	3.3
	2.1	3.08	3.28	Watch
	2.23	3.1	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.18)	3.14 ↓ (3.21)	3.19 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaiba Brava
41.9%

Draw
29.3%

Alacranes de Durango
28.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.1%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

29.4%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaiba Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Jaiba Brava - Alacranes de Durango Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Jaiba Brava will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Alacranes de Durango will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ruiz G. (C) 3. Pena R. 25. Padilla A. 5. Ochoa I. 17. Ramirez I. 10. Torres E. 26. Manzanarez O. 16. Martinez J. 19. Lopez D. 14. Corona N. 7. Magana D.	1. Munoz J. (G) 3. Gonzalez J. 35. Flores S. (C) 4. Munoz J. 2. Garcia A. 5. Cantu E. 7. Gutierrez L. 30. Escoboza A. 27. Angulo J. 10. Gonzalez J. 17. Reyes Olguin J. I.
Substitutes
153. Barrios J. 27. Escalante E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 15. Ham Puertos A. M. 21. Lopez F. 33. Martinez S. 177. Mendez O. 18. Serna A. 20. Tovar J.	14. Lorona L. 12. Lozano M. 8. Montano T. 26. Munoz B. 13. Ontiveros A. 21. Oteo D. 33. Pelaez A. (G) 23. Siqueiros C. 28. Torres J. 6. Vega Hernandez C.
Coaches
Ruiz M. A.	Real H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Ramirez I. 🟨,
43', Torres E. 🟨,
43', Gutierrez L. 🟨,
44', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Garcia A. ↓, Ontiveros A. ↑,
46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Oteo D. ↑,
46', Gutierrez L. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
63', Corona N. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
67', Magana D. 🟥,
75', Angulo J. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
84', Martinez J. ↓, Martinez S. ↑,
84', Torres E. ↓, Tovar J. ↑,
84', Vega Hernandez C. ↓, Montano T. ↑,
90+1', Lopez D. ↓, Ham Puertos A. M. ↑,
90+1', Cantu E. 🟨,
90+3', Montano T. 🟨,
90+5', Ruiz G. 🟨,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th and 8th in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).

Jaiba Brava is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Alacranes de Durango shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Alacranes de Durango may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Jaiba Brava is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Alacranes de Durango	14	6	3	5	18:14	4	21
14	Jaiba Brava	14	4	3	7	15:23	-8	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.10.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
25.09.26	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLTLW
- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.26	Alacranes de Durango - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:2 ✺
26.09.26	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
17.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWLT

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