Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Encanto (Mazatlan)

Referee: Delgadillo Franco O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN 4


	Dorados		Alacranes de Durango

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.50	3.20	2.45
	2.35	3.25	2.70	Watch
	2.71	3.50	2.65
	2.4	3.52	2.75	Watch
	2.65	3.30	2.55
	2.62	3.39	2.54	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.37)	3.34 ↓ (3.46)	2.59 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorados
36.5%

Draw
27.7%

Alacranes de Durango
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

26.6%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

26.2%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Dorados - Alacranes de Durango Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Dorados will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Castro J. (G) 20. Osuna D. 4. Franco R. 32. Castro C. 5. Flores A. 17. Pena F. (C) 13. Padilla G. 11. Contreras F. 18. Cervantes S. 10. Vargas L. 29. Coronel O.	1. Munoz J. (G) 21. Oteo D. 35. Flores S. (C) 4. Munoz J. 2. Garcia A. 5. Cantu E. 16. Dominguez R. 30. Escoboza A. 27. Angulo J. 10. Gonzalez J. 17. Reyes Olguin J. I.
Substitutes
7. Alvarez J. 12. Egana A. 34. Flores I. (G) 8. Galicia C. 22. Gonzalez Rodriguez W. 6. Guajardo D. 26. Gutierrez E. 15. Leyva C. 28. Ordorica B. 23. Sanchez B.	7. Gutierrez L. 14. Lorona L. 12. Lozano M. 8. Montano T. 11. Morales L. 26. Munoz B. 13. Ontiveros A. 33. Pelaez A. (G) 19. Valenzuela A. 6. Vega Hernandez C.
Coaches
Orozco L.	Real H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Coronel O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Flores A. ↓, Leyva C. ↑,
46', Angulo J. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
46', Padilla G. ↓, Guajardo D. ↑,
50', Guajardo D. 🟨,
57', Gutierrez L. 🟨,
60', Vargas L. ↓, Ordorica B. ↑,
62', Garcia A. 🟨,
63', 0 - 1, Reyes Olguin J. I. ⚽,
64', Reyes Olguin J. I. 🟨,
65', Flores S. 🟨,
71', Reyes Olguin J. I. ↓, Ontiveros A. ↑,
71', Escoboza A. ↓, Valenzuela A. ↑,
71', Garcia A. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
76', Castro C. 🟨,
79', Gonzalez J. ↓, Vega Hernandez C. ↑,
79', Contreras F. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
79', Osuna D. ↓, Galicia C. ↑,
82', Ordorica B. 🟨,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 9th and 11th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Alacranes de Durango could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Dorados has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:8 (averaging 1:2.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dorados against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:5 goals (averaging 1.5:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Alacranes de Durango	11	5	2	4	11:11	0	17
11	Dorados de Sinaloa	11	3	4	4	20:20	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	1:1 ✺
15.09.26	Dorados - Cancún	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
03.09.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	1:4 ✺
28.08.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 TTWWL
- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Correcaminos UAT - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.03.23	Alacranes de Durango - Dorados	3:0
21.10.22	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	1:3
24.08.22	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	2:2

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