Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 12

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)


	Alacranes de Durango		Cimarrones de Sonora

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.85	4.9
	1.67	3.86	4.34	Watch
	1.64	3.86	4.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.67)	3.86 ↑ (3.6)	4.65 ↑ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
56.5%

Draw
23.8%

Cimarrones de Sonora
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

25.1%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

24.2%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Cimarrones de Sonora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Alacranes de Durango - Cimarrones de Sonora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, ⚽,
27', 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, ⚽,
62', 🟥,
67', 🟥,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs: )).

Alacranes de Durango is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Cimarrones de Sonora has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alacranes de Durango may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alacranes de Durango is the team to beat.

We predict that Alacranes de Durango will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alacranes de Durango won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:12. (average 0.5:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alacranes de Durango won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 1:3.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
24.10.25	Alacranes de Durango - Zapotlanejo	5:1 ✺
18.10.25	Tuzos UAZ - Alacranes de Durango	0:5 ✺
11.10.25	La Piedad - Alacranes de Durango	0:5 ✺
03.10.25	Alacranes de Durango - Colima	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Leones Negros 2 - Alacranes de Durango	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWLW
- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.11.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - La Piedad	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Colima - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:0 ✺
17.10.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Leones Negros 2	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Los Cabos United - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Tigres de Álica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
07.03.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	0:0
25.10.24	Alacranes de Durango - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:3 penalties
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
05.01.23	Alacranes de Durango - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:4
21.09.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	5:0

Upcoming Matches