Match Info

Super Lig - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Alanya Oba Stadium (Alanya)

Referee: Kol Y. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX


	Alanyaspor		Kayserispor

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.45	Watch
	2.61	3.39	2.52	Watch
	2.67	3.65	2.64
	2.68	3.35	2.63	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.5
	2.66	3.54	2.68	Watch
	2.08	3.45	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.06)	3.47 ↓ (3.54)	2.67 ↓ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alanyaspor
37.4%

Draw
27.3%

Kayserispor
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

26.5%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

25.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alanyaspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alanyaspor's form might have worsened.

Kayserispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kayserispor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alanyaspor than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alanyaspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kayserispor than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kayserispor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	7.1%	71.4%

Alanyaspor - Kayserispor Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Alanyaspor will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Kayserispor will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kayserispor: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Kayserispor (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Kayserispor (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kayserispor (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Paulo Victor (G) 20. Aksoy F. (C) 5. Aliti F. 30. Bruno Viana 94. Hadergjonaj F. 42. Makouta G. 17. Janvier N. 8. Keskin E. 12. Elia M. 16. Hwang Ui-Jo 27. Kaya I.	25. Bayazit B. (G) 2. Katongo J. 6. Guler S. 28. Civelek R. 23. Carole L. 15. Ait Bennasser Y. 24. Tokoz D. 33. Soyalp F. 8. Benes L. 22. Tuci I. 7. Cardoso M. (C)
Substitutes
25. Bulut B. 6. Celik I. 14. Hagi I. 7. Karaca E. 18. Mogultay B. 1. Taskiran E. (G) 10. Yalcin G. 2. Yavuz B.	30. Brenet J. 63. Chalov F. 4. Denswil S. 17. Kapacak B. 18. Makarov D. 20. Mane C. 11. Mather S. 10. Mendes J. 1. Piri O. (G) 61. Saglam G.
Coaches
Pereira J.	Moe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Elia M. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Benes L. ⚽, Cardoso M. (A),
40', 2 - 1, Hadergjonaj F. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Civelek R. 🟨,
54', Soyalp F. ↓, Chalov F. ↑,
55', Civelek R. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
61', 3 - 1, Kaya I. ⚽, Hadergjonaj F. (A),
63', Janvier N. 🟨,
63', Tokoz D. ↓, Saglam G. ↑,
71', Kaya I. ↓, Hagi I. ↑,
77', Guler S. 🟨,
78', Janvier N. ↓, Celik I. ↑,
78', Hwang Ui-Jo ↓, Yalcin G. ↑,
80', Tuci I. ↓, Makarov D. ↑,
85', Makouta G. 🟨,
87', Elia M. ↓, Karaca E. ↑,
88', Keskin E. ↓, Mogultay B. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 1.

Alanyaspor has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kayserispor is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alanyaspor is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Alanyaspor: Akdag U. (Yellow Cards) Lima N. (Yellow Cards) Maestro (Yellow Cards) Ozdemir Y. (Suspended) Ruan (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Kayserispor: Burak A. (Suspended) Celtik Y. (Knee Injury) Cihan K. (Inactive) Hosseini M. (Health problems)

There are questionable in Kayserispor: Onugkha G. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 39:19. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alanyaspor won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 28:9. (average 2.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Alanyaspor	7	3	3	1	8:6	2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Kayserispor - the odds 3.37 are the expected chance of winning is 27.84%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alanyaspor
Turkish Super League
03.05.26	Antalyaspor - Alanyaspor	0:0 ✺
27.04.26	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	2:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.04.26	Beşiktaş - Alanyaspor	3:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
19.04.26	Kasımpaşa - Alanyaspor	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Alanyaspor - Trabzonspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL
- Kayserispor
Turkish Super League
03.05.26	Kayserispor - Eyüpspor	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Kayserispor - Çaykur Rizespor	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Gaziantep - Kayserispor	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Kayserispor - Fenerbahçe	0:4 ✺
04.04.26	Kasımpaşa - Kayserispor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
13.12.25	Kayserispor - Alanyaspor	0:0
03.05.25	Alanyaspor - Kayserispor	1:1
08.12.24	Kayserispor - Alanyaspor	2:0
16.03.24	Alanyaspor - Kayserispor	1:0
06.11.23	Kayserispor - Alanyaspor	1:0
20.05.23	Kayserispor - Alanyaspor	0:4
28.12.22	Alanyaspor - Kayserispor	3:1

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