Match Info

J1 League - Round 22

Date: 29 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Albirex Niigata		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.25	2	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.05
				Watch
	4.01	3.45	2.1
				Watch
	3.6	3.2	2
	3.75	3.43	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (3.68)	3.32 ↑ (3.22)	2.04 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
25.1%

Draw
28.5%

Machida Zelvia
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

29.6%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

29.9%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	28.6%	66.7%

Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 1 - 4.8%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -1.5 - Machida Zelvia (4.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Albirex Niigata (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Albirex Niigata (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Albirex Niigata (votes: 2 - 25%). Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujita K. (G) 15. Hayakawa F. 2. Geria J. 3. Inamura H. 31. Horigome Y. 28. Ota S. 6. Akiyama H. 8. Miyamoto E. 30. Okumura J. 41. Hasegawa M. 7. Taniguchi K.	1. Tani K. (G) 50. Okamura D. 4. Kikuchi R. 3. Shoji G. 6. Mochizuki H. 16. Mae H. 18. Shimoda H. 26. Hayashi K. 20. Nishimura T. 7. Soma Y. 9. Fujio S.
Substitutes
22. Arai T. 11. Danilo Gomes 5. Fitzgerald M. 19. Hoshi Y. 46. Kasai K. 4. Okamoto S. 33. Takagi Y. 21. Tashiro R. (G) 9. Yamura K.	5. Dresevic I. 15. Duke M. 49. Kuwayama K. 13. Morita T. (G) 19. Nakayama Y. 10. Na Sang-Ho 90. Oh Se-Hun 8. Sento K. 23. Shirasaki R.
Coaches
Irie T.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Nishimura T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', Shimoda H. 🟨,
61', Taniguchi K. ↓, Danilo Gomes ↑,
61', 0 - 2, Soma Y. ⚽, Fujio S. (A),
67', 0 - 3, Soma Y. ⚽,
69', Ota S. ↓, Kasai K. ↑,
69', Miyamoto E. ↓, Hoshi Y. ↑,
76', 0 - 4, Fujio S. ⚽, Nishimura T. (A),
78', Fujio S. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
78', Hayashi K. ↓, Nakayama Y. ↑,
78', Shimoda H. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
83', Akiyama H. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,
83', Hasegawa M. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
88', Kikuchi R. ↓, Dresevic I. ↑,
88', Soma Y. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 2.

Niigata has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Machida Zelvia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Machida Zelvia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Machida Zelvia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T. (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:17. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:3. (average 2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
25.06.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata	3:1 ✺
21.06.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata	3:2 ✺
15.06.25	Albirex Niigata - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Albirex Niigata - Fukuyama City	1:0 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
31.05.25	Nagoya Grampus - Albirex Niigata	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWWL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
21.06.25	Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Shonan Bellmare - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sangyo University	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
31.05.25	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama F. Marinos	0:3 ✺
25.05.25	Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	1:0
Japan J League Cup
08.09.24	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	2:0
04.09.24	Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia	5:0
Japan J1 League
25.08.24	Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia	0:0
01.06.24	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	1:3
Japan Emperors Cup
02.08.23	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	0:1
Japan J2 League
23.10.22	Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia	2:1

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