Match Info

JAPAN: Emperors Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)


	Albirex Niigata		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	2.7
	2.1	3.4	2.8
	2.2	3.5	3
	2.23	3.61	3.08
	2.19	3.62	3.01	Watch
	2.15	3.4	2.88
	2.22	3.6	2.97
	2.23	3.4	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.04)	3.47 ↑ (3.31)	2.92 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
41.8%

Draw
26.6%

V-Varen Nagasaki
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

27.6%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

27.8%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Albirex Niigata - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 3 - 60%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Abe K. (G) 6. Akiyama H. (C) 35. Chiba K. 17. Danilo Gomes 5. Fitzgerald M. 32. Hasegawa T. 18. Hayakawa F. 40. Ishiyama A. 22. Matsuda E. 99. Ono Y. 33. Takagi Y.	31. Harada G. (G) 35. Abe T. 9. Juanma Delgado (C) 33. Kasayanagi T. 14. Nagura T. 15. Naruse S. 34. Satsukida S. 19. Sawada T. 40. Shirai H. 4. Valdo 23. Yoneda S.
Substitutes
26. Endo R. 14. Hasegawa M. 31. Horigome Y. 8. Miyamoto E. 27. Nagakura M. 7. Taniguchi K. 23. Yoshimitsu D. (G)	13. Kato M. 7. Marcos Guilherme 6. Matheus Jesus 38. Matsuzawa K. 27. Moyo M. 5. Tanaka H. 1. Tomizawa M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Sawada T. ⚽,
11', 0 - 2, Juanma Delgado ⚽,
33', 0 - 3, Sawada T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
52', 0 - 4, Nagura T. ⚽,
67', Sawada T. ↓, Marcos Guilherme ↑,
68', Kasayanagi T. ↓, Matsuzawa K. ↑,
73', Abe T. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
73', Valdo ↓, Tanaka H. ↑,
76', 0 - 5, Juanma Delgado ⚽,
84', Nagura T. ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
90+2', 0 - 6, ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 6, ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Niigata won 2.

Recent matches Niigata is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

V-Varen Nagasaki is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Niigata won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Niigata won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
06.07.24	Albirex Niigata - Sagan Tosu	3:4 ✺
29.06.24	Consadole Sapporo - Albirex Niigata	0:1 ✺
26.06.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
22.06.24	Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 ✺
16.06.24	Kashima Antlers - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWTWT
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
06.07.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Roasso Kumamoto	2:0 ✺
29.06.24	Tokushima Vortis - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:2 ✺
26.06.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Iwaki	3:1 ✺
22.06.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fujieda MYFC	2:0 ✺
16.06.24	Vegalta Sendai - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J League Cup
09.06.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Albirex Niigata	1:1
05.06.24	Albirex Niigata - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1
Japan J2 League
30.07.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Albirex Niigata	2:2
23.04.22	Albirex Niigata - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1
16.10.21	V-Varen Nagasaki - Albirex Niigata	1:1
05.03.21	Albirex Niigata - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0
28.11.20	V-Varen Nagasaki - Albirex Niigata	2:0

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