The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Albirex Niigata 26.3%
Draw 27.7%
Sagan Tosu 46.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
32.7%
29.1%
38.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.8%
29.2%
38.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Albirex Niigata's form might have worsened.
Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sagan Tosu's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Albirex Niigata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sagan Tosu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
62.5%
12.5%
25%
Albirex Niigata - Sagan Tosu Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tosu will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Albirex Niigata: 29% โ 96%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
46. Baumann N. (G) 30. Sekiguchi M. 2. Geria J. 15. Hayakawa F. 3. Kato T. 7. Onishi Y. 8. Shirai E. (C) 16. Osawa T. 55. Moraes M. 17. Shimabuku K. 18. Wakatsuki Y.
12. Matsubara S. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 44. Abe K. 26. Ando T. 28. Yoshida M. 24. Yamauchi K. 6. Sakurai T. 7. Sakamoto K. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. (C) 9. Takahashi T.
Substitutes
22. Arai T. 5. Fitzgerald M. 9. Iury Castilho 6. Kasai K. 14. Konagaya C. 32. Kuwayama K. 38. Mori K. 26. Sato M. 71. Uchiyama S. (G)
42. Goto H. 4. Imazu Y. 1. Izumori R. (G) 41. Matsuoka H. 8. Narahara Y. 19. Park Ho-Min 11. Shiohama R. 21. Toyoda A. 43. Yoshino K.
Coaches
Funakoshi Y.
Kogiku A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Nagasawa S. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Moraes M. ⚽, Sekiguchi M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Nagasawa S. ↓, Imazu Y. ↑,
46', Hyon R. ↓, Shiohama R. ↑,
52', Sekiguchi M. 🟨,
63', Takahashi T. ↓, Goto H. ↑,
63', Yoshida M. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
71', Moraes M. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
75', Yamauchi K. ↓, Park Ho-Min ↑,
77', Osawa T. ↓, Kasai K. ↑,
77', Wakatsuki Y. ↓, Konagaya C. ↑,
80', 2 - 0, Kuwayama K. ⚽,
83', 2 - 1, Goto H. ⚽, Abe K. (A),
89', Shimabuku K. ↓, Sato M. ↑,
89', Sekiguchi M. ↓, Fitzgerald M. ↑,
Preview
This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - J2 League (Promotion: ) and 12th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Albirex Niigata won 2.
In recent outings, Albirex Niigata has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Tosu shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Albirex Niigata could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Albirex Niigata has faced a series of away games on the road.
Recently, Tosu has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
Tosu is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Albirex Niigata has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:20 (averaging 1.2:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Albirex Niigata against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 13:8 goals (averaging 1.3:0.8 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Albirex Niigata
13
8
2
3
19:21
-2
26
10
Sagan Tosu
13
5
2
6
14:15
-1
17
Last Results with these Odds
Albirex Niigata - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.73%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Sagan Tosu - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.18%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.
China
Japan
Watch
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Baumann N. (G) 
Sekiguchi M. 
Geria J. 
Moraes M. 
Shimabuku K. 
Park Ho-Min 
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