Match Info

ENGLAND: FA TROPHY - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 20 December 2022, Tuesday

Location: Recreation Ground (Aldershot)


	Aldershot Town		Welling United

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.75	4.33
	1.65	3.75	4.25
	1.66	3.65	4.3
	1.66	3.68	4.89
	1.65	3.5	4.5
	1.66	3.94	4.7
	1.64	3.75	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.18)	3.72 ↑ (3.3)	4.48 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aldershot Town
55.2%

Draw
24.5%

Welling United
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.3%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

27.2%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aldershot Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aldershot Town's performance.

Welling United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Welling United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aldershot Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Welling United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aldershot Town - Welling United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aldershot won 4.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Aldershot is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Aldershot won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Aldershot won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aldershot Town
English National League
03.12.22	Gateshead - Aldershot Town	0:2 ✺
26.11.22	Aldershot Town - Southend United	2:0 ✺
19.11.22	Wrexham - Aldershot Town	2:0 ✺
12.11.22	Aldershot Town - Maidenhead United	1:2 ✺
01.11.22	Torquay United - Aldershot Town	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLLL
- Welling United
English National League South
06.12.22	Welling United - Farnborough	1:2 ✺
02.12.22	Bath City - Welling United	1:1 ✺
26.11.22	Welling United - Weymouth	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
19.11.22	Welling United - Havant & Waterlooville	3:2 ✺
English National League South
12.11.22	Concord Rangers - Welling United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
27.02.16	Welling United - Aldershot Town	0:1
15.09.15	Aldershot Town - Welling United	1:0
14.02.15	Aldershot Town - Welling United	2:1
20.12.14	Welling United - Aldershot Town	3:1
28.12.13	Aldershot Town - Welling United	3:1
24.09.13	Welling United - Aldershot Town	1:0

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