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Current Win Probability
Cancún 59.2%
Draw 22.8%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 18%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46.7%
27%
26.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.4%
26.1%
25.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cancún has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cancún's performance.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alebrijes de Oaxaca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (-10.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cancún that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alebrijes de Oaxaca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Cancún - Alebrijes de Oaxaca Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Arce E. (G) 3. Hernandez J. 15. Guillen D. 33. Ruiz L. 2. Alvarez A. 10. Uscanga P. (C) 20. Arredondo A. 14. Campos K. 19. Preciado G. 11. Trejo C. 12. Rodriguez J.
21. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 15. Villa P. 4. Alvarez K. (C) 12. Reyes J. 25. Martinez D. 23. Hernandez A. 17. Collazo D. 177. Bustos J. 6. Arellano A. 33. Tecpanecatl A. 11. Andrey Marcos
Substitutes
5. Chavez A. 7. El-mesmari B. 9. Gigena T. 16. Lomeli D. 17. Lopez L. 8. Melendre F. 18. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 4. Reyes R. 139. Salaya De La Cruz C. 24. Vela C.
20. Ayala D. 8. Barreda I. 19. Fadika B. 18. Gonzalez J. 28. Jeffus L. 3. Justo A. 1. Rodas C. (G) 34. Torres W.
Coaches
Bravo M.
Hernandez E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Bustos J. 🟨,
29', Alvarez K. 🟨,
37', Trejo C. 🟨,
38', Guillen D. 🟨,
45+5', Villa P. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Arredondo A. ↓, Melendre F. ↑,
46', Preciado G. ↓, Chavez A. ↑,
46', Villa P. ↓, Justo A. ↑,
54', Melendre F. 🟨,
56', Martinez D. 🟨,
59', Uscanga P. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Campos K. ⚽, Chavez A. (A),
72', Hernandez A. ↓, Barreda I. ↑,
72', 2 - 0, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Trejo C. (A),
77', Arellano A. 🟥,
81', 3 - 0, Trejo C. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Campos K. ↓, Vela C. ↑,
82', Tecpanecatl A. ↓, Fadika B. ↑,
82', Collazo D. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
86', Alvarez A. ↓, Salaya De La Cruz C. ↑,
86', Martinez D. ↓, Torres W. ↑,
Preview
Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 9th and 13th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 4.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Cancún carries the favorite tag into this contest.
In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Cancún has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:10 (averaging 1.2:0.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Cancún against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 6:5 goals (averaging 1:0.8 per game).
Mexico
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Arce E. (G) 
Preciado G. 
Rodriguez J. 
Andrey Marcos 
Fadika B. 
Jeffus L. 
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