Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Gil J. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Leones Negros UdeG		Mineros de Zacatecas

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.8
	2.52	3.25	2.58	Watch
	2.99	3.5	2.4
	2.64	3.54	2.49
	2.3	3.2	2.75
	2.91	3.31	2.36	Watch
	2.2	3.45	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (1.97)	3.36 ↓ (3.43)	2.62 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros UdeG
36.8%

Draw
27.7%

Mineros de Zacatecas
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

26.8%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

25.8%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones Negros UdeG's form might have worsened.

Mineros de Zacatecas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mineros de Zacatecas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones Negros UdeG, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mineros de Zacatecas than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mineros de Zacatecas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Leones Negros UdeG - Mineros de Zacatecas Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Mineros de Zacatecas will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mineros de Zacatecas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 24. Aguayo J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 6. Cisneros C. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 88. Gonzalez O. 34. Hernandez S. A. 93. Lara M. 18. Munoz D. 2. Sanchez J. (C) 12. Villa O.	1. Duran L. (G) 17. De Los Rios S. 23. Garcia A. 12. Hernandez L. 11. Lopez F. 19. Magana K. 4. Marmolejo D. 14. Mazatan O. 18. Mendoza A. (C) 24. Padilla P. 13. Perez M.
Substitutes
10. Brigido J. 83. Escalante J. 20. Flores B. 22. Gil O. 82. Meza U. 94. Padilla L. 11. Perez J. 86. Torres D. 98. Venegas S. 14. Villalobos A.	10. Avila J. 3. Barajas V. 20. Castro Garcia W. D. 2. Cervantes L. 9. Machado J. 6. Rios P. 8. Trejo E. 22. Valenzuela J. (G) 15. Villacorta A.
Coaches
Sosa L.	Garcia M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Lopez F. ⚽, Mazatan O. (A),
13', 0 - 2, Padilla P. ⚽,
30', 1 - 2, Munoz D. ⚽, Camacho Lastra R. E. (A),
40', Villa O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lara M. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
60', Padilla P. ↓, Trejo E. ↑,
65', Gonzalez O. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
65', Cisneros C. ↓, Gil O. ↑,
66', Perez M. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
66', Lopez F. ↓, Barajas V. ↑,
76', Hernandez L. 🟨,
78', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
84', Magana K. ↓, Rios P. ↑,
84', De Los Rios S. ↓, Villacorta A. ↑,
84', 1 - 3, Mazatan O. ⚽,
85', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Torres D. ↑,
85', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Villalobos A. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 2.

Recent form of Leones Negros UdeG has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mineros de Zacatecas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leones Negros UdeG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:28. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:13. (average 2.3:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
6	Zacatecas Mineros	11	5	2	4	23:19	4	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.03.26	Dorados - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Leones Negros UdeG	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLTTL
- Mineros de Zacatecas
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.03.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Jaiba Brava	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:0 ✺
27.02.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cancún - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:1 ✺
06.02.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.10.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0
25.01.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Leones Negros UdeG	0:0
09.11.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:1
06.11.24	Mineros de Zacatecas - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2
11.08.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:0
28.04.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:0
25.04.24	Mineros de Zacatecas - Leones Negros UdeG	0:0

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