Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Sergio León Chavez (Irapuato)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Irapuato		Alebrijes de Oaxaca

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.4	3.9
	1.58	3.85	5.15
	1.57	4.13	5.67
	1.64	4.09	4.79	Watch
	1.53	3.6	5
	1.59	3.88	5.47	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.41)	3.74 ↓ (4.78)	4.72 ↓ (6.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Irapuato
55.2%

Draw
25%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

19.5%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

19.8%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Irapuato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Irapuato's form might have worsened.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alebrijes de Oaxaca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Irapuato, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Irapuato - Alebrijes de Oaxaca Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Irapuato will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Irapuato (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Irapuato (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Irapuato (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Hernandez H. (C) 6. del Angel E. 5. Elbis 28. Gamboa J. 27. Martinez G. 11. Partida E. 31. Pena R. 24. Rodriguez A. 34. Ruiz J. 16. Sandoval R. 9. Vasquez Velasquez L. S.	1. Rodas C. (G) 6. Arellano A. 177. Bustos J. 33. Cortes J. (C) 5. Esqueda Romero J. A. 21. Franco J. 3. Justo A. 8. Morales F. 22. Ochoa Sanchez J. A. 12. Tamay A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.
Substitutes
3. Alvarado V. 8. Cruz C. 2. Doldan J. 33. Gonzalez R. 1. Magana G. (G) 10. Rangel J. 36. Salazar J. 25. Sanchez B. 19. Santana C. 26. Santillan E.	20. Ayala D. 13. Barreda I. 19. Fadika B. 24. Garcia L. 35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 23. Hernandez A. 7. Lopez D. 11. Mascorro H. 17. Nunez D. 16. Zetuna Y.
Coaches
Alcantar D.	Hernandez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Sandoval R. ⚽, Pena R. (A),
20', Pena R. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Bustos J. ⚽, Morales F. (A),
2nd Half (5 - 1)
46', Franco J. ↓, Fadika B. ↑,
51', 2 - 1, del Angel E. ⚽, Pena R. (A),
55', 3 - 1, Partida E. ⚽,
59', 4 - 1, Ruiz J. ⚽,
60', Arellano A. 🟨,
63', Tamay A. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
63', Esqueda Romero J. A. ↓, Garcia L. ↑,
64', Vazquez Hernandez A. ↓, Mascorro H. ↑,
66', Rodriguez A. ↓, Rangel J. ↑,
66', Ruiz J. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
66', Partida E. ↓, Cruz C. ↑,
70', Elbis 🟨,
72', 4 - 2, Bustos J. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Justo A. 🟨,
78', 5 - 2, Cruz C. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Justo A. ↓, Zetuna Y. ↑,
82', del Angel E. ↓, Salazar J. ↑,
82', Vasquez Velasquez L. S. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
89', Zetuna Y. 🟨,
90+1', 6 - 2, Salazar J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Irapuato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Irapuato could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Irapuato won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Irapuato won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Alebrijes Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8:22	-14	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.02.26	Irapuato - Atlante	0:5 ✺
20.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Irapuato - Dorados	5:0 ✺
07.02.26	Jaiba Brava - Irapuato	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Tlaxcala - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWWL
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.02.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Dorados	3:2 ✺
21.02.26	Atlante - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Venados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:3 ✺
30.01.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Irapuato	0:2
09.01.15	Irapuato - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:1
19.07.14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Irapuato	2:1

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