Match Info

Date: 1 March 2022, Tuesday


	Alessandria		Como

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.5	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.4
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.3
	2.33	3.07	3.67
	2.3	2.9	3.4
	2.28	3.05	3.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.28)	3 ↓ (3.07)	3.46 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alessandria
41.3%

Draw
31.4%

Como
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

30.8%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

21.3%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alessandria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Como has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alessandria than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alessandria that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Como than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Como could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alessandria - Como Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out) and 11).

Alessandria has the most likely position - 16 (31.58%), has project points - 36, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (44%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Como has the most likely position - 12 (20.11%), has project points - 51, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 26, small importance 27, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alessandria won 0.

Alessandria is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Como is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alessandria will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Alessandria won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 7-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Alessandria won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alessandria 1912
Italian Serie B
26.02.22	Nuova Cosenza - Alessandria	2:1 ✺
22.02.22	Alessandria - Perugia	1:2 ✺
19.02.22	Ascoli - Alessandria	3:0 ✺
16.02.22	Alessandria - Lecce	1:1 ✺
13.02.22	Brescia - Alessandria	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLLTT
- Calcio Como
Italian Serie B
26.02.22	Como - Brescia	1:1 ✺
23.02.22	Benevento - Como	5:0 ✺
20.02.22	Como - Nuova Cosenza	2:1 ✺
16.02.22	Frosinone - Como	1:2 ✺
13.02.22	Ascoli - Como	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
16.10.21	Como - Alessandria	2:0
Italian Serie C Group A
25.04.21	Como - Alessandria	2:1
20.01.21	Alessandria - Como	0:2
13.10.19	Alessandria - Como	1:1
12.02.17	Como - Alessandria	2:1
25.09.16	Alessandria - Como	2:0
25.04.15	Alessandria - Como	0:1

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