Match Info

National League North - Round 31

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday


	Alfreton Town		Buxton

	1	X	2
	4	3.6	1.7
	4.15	3.8	1.7
	4.2	3.93	1.75
	3.99	4.13	1.73	Watch
	4	3.6	1.75
	4.31	3.74	1.67
	3	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (2.82)	3.74 ↑ (3.57)	1.78 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
23.4%

Draw
24.7%

Buxton
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

26%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

24.8%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alfreton Town's form might have worsened.

Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Buxton's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alfreton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Buxton, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Alfreton Town - Buxton Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Alfreton will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Buxton will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
40', 1 - 0, Lund A. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Johnston J. ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, Burton K. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 2 - 2, Brennan L. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Buxton might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 2.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Alfreton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.8:0.8).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Buxton: 4.86%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18:18	0	16

Last Results with these Odds

Buxton - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.08%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English National League North
11.04.26	Alfreton Town - Oxford City	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Leamington - Alfreton Town	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Alfreton Town - Worksop Town	1:1 ✺
31.03.26	Alfreton Town - Chorley	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	South Shields - Alfreton Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TWTWL
- Buxton FC
English National League North
11.04.26	Buxton - Scarborough Athletic	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Worksop Town - Buxton	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Buxton - Macclesfield Town	2:4 ✺
28.03.26	Hereford - Buxton	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Buxton - Bedford Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
25.10.25	Buxton - Alfreton Town	6:0
21.04.25	Alfreton Town - Buxton	3:2
26.12.24	Buxton - Alfreton Town	3:2
01.01.24	Buxton - Alfreton Town	1:2
26.12.23	Alfreton Town - Buxton	2:1
01.01.23	Buxton - Alfreton Town	0:0
26.12.22	Alfreton Town - Buxton	3:0

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