Match Info

National League North - Round 41

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Edgar Street (Hereford)


	Hereford		Buxton

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.7	1.8
	3.5	3.7	1.88
	3.66	3.78	1.9
	3.48	3.9	1.9	Watch
	3.7	3.6	1.85
	3.64	3.84	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (2.36)	3.75 ↑ (3.72)	1.87 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hereford
25.8%

Draw
24.6%

Buxton
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

25%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

25.1%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hereford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hereford's form might have worsened.

Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Buxton's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hereford than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hereford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Buxton, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Hereford - Buxton Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Buxton will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
60', 0 - 1, Ward G. ⚽,
90+7', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hereford won 3.

Hereford is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Buxton is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hereford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Hereford won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hereford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Hereford: 11.21% Buxton: 4.86%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Hereford	10	7	2	1	22:5	17	23
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18:18	0	16

Last Results with these Odds

Hereford - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 39.34%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Buxton - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.71%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hereford FC
English National League North
24.03.26	Hereford - Spennymoor Town	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Macclesfield Town - Hereford	3:1 ✺
19.03.26	Alfreton Town - Hereford	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Hereford - Fylde	1:4 ✺
14.03.26	Hereford - South Shields	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLLLW
- Buxton FC
English National League North
21.03.26	Buxton - Bedford Town	3:0 ✺
17.03.26	Leamington - Buxton	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Chorley - Buxton	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Darlington - Buxton	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Buxton - Kidderminster Harriers	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
19.08.25	Buxton - Hereford	1:2
25.02.25	Hereford - Buxton	2:1
12.10.24	Buxton - Hereford	1:2
01.04.24	Hereford - Buxton	2:2
21.11.23	Buxton - Hereford	2:1
21.01.23	Buxton - Hereford	0:1
20.08.22	Hereford - Buxton	2:0

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